Tampa visits the Rogers Centre, with two elite starters going at it - the Rays' Dennis Rasmussen against the Jays' Kevin Gausman
That betting line for tonight’s Toronto Blue Jays-Tampa Bay Rays game is perhaps tighter than it should be, considering the Rays always seem to have the Blue Jays number when they meet.
The Jays are 30-41 in regular season play against the Rays the past five seasons.
Tonight is the first game of a three-game set between the two teams, just days after Tampa Bay dominated the Blue Jays, sweeping them over three games at Tropicana Field.
It’s a stellar pitching matchup – the home team going with Kevin Gausman (2-2, 3.09 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 43 Ks in 46.2 IP), up against Dennis Rasmussen (2-1, 2.95 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, 37 Ks in 36.2 IP).
The Rays are in first place in the American League East, at 26-13, one game up on the Yankees, who are in Baltimore tonight to start a series with the Orioles.
Toronto is in middling mode, 18-22, third in the AL East, 8.5 games out of first place.
For the Blue Jays, it’s becoming an all-too common narrative. He was great during the World Series run last fall, but if the team is going to go anywhere, they need more power out of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Love the batting average – .308, tied for 15th in MLB – but 2 HRs a quarter of the way through the season isn’t going to cut it for a guy I projected to be in the neighbourhood of 40 homers by years end.
Keep an eye on the results of that MRI on Addison Barger’s right elbow. They just got him back after a long stint on the IL with an ankle injury, and he was going to help address the team’s power shortage (Barger had 21 HRs last season).
If he’s out long term the Blue Jays are going to have to look at trading for a power bat in the outfield.
For the Rays, they are always in it, despite working with one of the lowest payrolls in the MLB, combining elite, flexible pitching with young hitting and analytics.
The AL East in general is a challenging terrain for bettors, with swings in momentum. In baseball betting at Betway, the Rays are now second to the Yankees in futures to take the AL East title (+600, to the Yankees -455).
Toronto has shown elite pitching and inconsistent offence. Baltimore relies on its young core, and sit in 4th in the division, at 18-23. The Yankees are getting MVP production from Aaron Judge. The Red Sox started the season 2-8 but have played .500 baseball since then.
BEST BETS
Tampa Bay Rays (26-13) versus Toronto Blue Jays (18-22), 7:07p.m. EST, Rogers Centre, Toronto
The Blue Jays are Moneyline favourites in MLB betting at Betway, at -130, with the Rays +110. The spread is Jays -1.5 (+150), Rays +1.5 (-200). The Over/Under is 7.5 (O +110, U -140).
Tampa Bay Rays Moneyline +110
I am sorry, but I am not trusting the Blue Jays against these guys just yet, despite an elite starter in Gausman on the mound tonight.
The Rays are scorching – taking 2 of 3 from the Red Sox at Fenway over the weekend, outscoring Boston 12-5, winners of 8 of their last 9 games.
Last week in Tampa Bay, the Rays outscored the Jays 12-4. But the Jays did take 2 of 3 from the Los Angeles Angels over the weekend.
Rasmussen handled this Jays’ lineup last week – a no- decision, 6 IP, 3 ER, 7H, 1 BB, 5K. Gausman was also solid that game – 6 IP, 2 ER, 6H, 1BB, 3K.
Gausman has struggled against the Rays overall since 2022, Rasmussen has been good on the road, and the Rays are hot coming in.
Under 7.5 -140
This is solid bet, I think. Both teams have been cashing unders mostly over their past 10 games, and bettors have cashed the under in 7 of their past 10 head-to-head games. Plus, you have two elite starters going.
BEST BETS
New York Yankees (26-15) versus Baltimore Orioles (18-23), 6:35 p.m. EST, Oriole Park at Camden Yards, Baltimore
The Yankees are Moneyline favourites in MLB betting at Betway, at -160, with the Orioles +130. The spread is Yankees -1.5 (+105), Orioles +1.5 (-125). The Over/Under is 8.5 (O -125, U +105).
Yankees ATS -1.5 +105
Good pitching matchup – Ryan Weathers (2-2, 3.03 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 45 Ks, 38.2 IP) for the Yankees versus Brandon Young (3-1, 4.35 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 14 Ks, 20.2 IP). Game forecast is 64°F with zero percent chance of precipitation.
Not only am I going Yankees for the win, I am taking Yankees Runline, because I don’t see an average pitcher, struggling with hard contact and home runs allowed, holding back a lineup that’s been down a little lately, but still leads MLB in home runs (63).
