Shelton carries a 10-match tournament streak into Montreal, while Svitolina offers value against Swiatek in Toronto
Soon-to-be Toronto Raptor (they hope, anyway) Kawhi Leonard attended the WTA’s National Bank Open tennis event last night, because Kawhi knows a great sporting event when he sees one, and wants a front-row seat.
It’s interesting, though, as the semifinals for the women’s event and men’s event in Montreal get going tonight. On the women’s side, it’s a battle of established stars. On the men’s side, it’s the takeover generation.
So, the National Bank Open has produced two almost opposite semifinal fields.
The women’s semifinal is loaded – Iga Swiatek, Coco Gauff, Elena Rybakina and Elina Svitolina. Swiatek, Gauff and Rybakina are major champions, while Svitolina is a former world No. 3. Gauff hasn’t dropped a set and dominated her quarterfinal, while Rybakina survived a 2-hour, 33-minute three-set battle with Naomi Osaka last night, so fatigue might be more of a factor with her.
On the men’s side, 23-year-old defending champion Ben Shelton is suddenly the veteran among the semi-final grouping. Rafael Jodar, Brandon Nakashima and Learner Tien were all born in the 2000s and are all appearing in their first Masters 1000 semifinal.
Shelton has won ten consecutive matches at the National Bank Open and just took out Jakub Mensik 6-3, 6-1.
On the betting side, where do you go? Pedigree in Toronto or momentum and upside in Montreal?
Tonight, on the men’s side, No. 20-ranked Jodar takes on No. 28-ranked Nakashima on center court at 6 p.m. EST, followed by No. 12-ranked Tien versus No. 5-ranked Shelton at 7:30 p.m. EST.
In tennis betting at Betway, Jodar is the betting favourite at -225, Nakashima is +175. In the later match, Shelton is the -200 favourite over Tien, who’s at +160.
On the women’s side, in Toronto, No. 9-ranked Svitolina takes on No. 7-ranked Swiatek at 7 p.m. EST, followed by No. 4-ranked Gauff versus No. 2-ranked Rybakina.
At Betway, Svitolina is +200, Swiatek -250, while Gauff is -138, with Rybakina at +110.
Take Shelton Moneyline over Tien, after the American totalled 18 winners and only three unforced errors in his dominant win over Mensik. Shelton is at +137 to win the tournament this morning, followed Jodar (+160), Tien (+450) and Nakashima (+650).
I’m also going to take Shelton 2-1 in set betting (+250), since, remember, Tien is 2-0 overall against Shelton.
In Jodar-Nakashima Total Games (22.5) at Betway, take the Over (-112). Jodar is 19, but is a legitimate title threat, and is 24-7 on hard courts this season. Nakashima is serving well, Jodar has shown remarkable composure in pressure situations, and neither has played a Masters semifinal before. It’s going to be an interesting match.
On the women’s side, in the first match, I am leaning Game Handicap Svitolina +3.5 (+100). She has beaten Swiatek twice this season, including their most recent meeting in Rome. Her current 10-match WTA 1000 winning streak suggests she can keep this semifinal close even if Swiatek ultimately advances to the final.
Gauff versus Rybakina seems like it’s going to be a longer match, so the Over 22.5 Total Games (-106) is where I am going there.
In their only previous match, at the National Bank Open in Toronto in 2022, Gauff won a very tight second-round match 6-4, 6-7(8), 7-6(3).
