Toronto’s fading playoff hopes collide with a volatile pitching matchup, putting the Over and Alejandro Kirk props in focus
According to Fangraphs at noon EST today, the Toronto Blue Jays have a 5.5% chance of winning the American League wild card race, a 0.2% chance of winning the World Series.
That percentage gets less as the number of games left in the season dwindles. After their 5-4 win over the Phillies last night in Game 1, the Jays (55-62, 3.5 games out of a wild-card spot) now have 45 games left in their season, looking up at the Seattle Mariners, Detroit Tigers, Baltimore Orioles, Cleveland Guardians, Minnesota Twins and Texas Rangers, currently holding the third wild-card spot.
That’s a lot of teams to vault over.
Today’s game at Citizens Bank Park starts at 6:05 p.m. EST, with Max Scherzer (1-4, 7.92 ERA, 1.63 WHIP, 23 Ks in 30.2 IP) going up against Aaron Nola (3-9, 5.55 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, 121 Ks in 120.0 IP) in Game 2 of a three-game set.
In MLB betting at Betway, the Phillies are -170 on the moneyline, the Blue Jays +140, with the run line Toronto +1.5 (-140) and Philadelphia -1.5 (+110). The Total is 9.5 (Over -110, Under -110).
That’s making the Phillies a fairly substantial favourite – betting $170 to profit $100. You’re also paying a relatively high price for the protection of Toronto +1.5.
I’m going to take Phillies -1.5 (+110), since I am comfortable they bounce back and win today after last night’s loss, and I don’t have to lay down -170.
The Phillies are the better overall team, and they’re at home, where they are 31-29. Scherzer’s ERA makes laying 1.5 runs way more palatable.
The other factor bettors should be aware of – the Jays, scrapping to try and make that wild-card spot, went through six pitchers last night. That’s a huge factor in Phillies’ favour if Scherzer can’t get beyond three-four innings.
Plus, Phillies slugger Kyle Schwarber looked silly in his two strikeouts, going 1-4. I don’t see a repeat performance out of him tonight. Schwarber is tied for the MLB lead in home runs with 33. Schwarber is +200 at Betway to hit a home run tonight.
Nola is more volatile than he was during his prime, and has surrendered 28 homers this season, and his 7.7% walk rate is his highest since 2020. Good for him that the Blue Jays are last in MLB in offence (runs scored).
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is still listed as out with a hamstring issue. No word as of 1:10 p.m. EST whether he will be playing. A late lineup confirmation can shift value, so stay close to your phone today for updates on him.
Scherzer has struggled with injury issues all year and has been homer- and walk-prone, so go with the Over 9.5. (-110) if you are betting.
You’re staring at a game of flawed starters.
For player props, I am looking at Blue Jays catcher Alejandro Kirk, who’s been hot at the plate of late (.348 over his last seven games, with eight hits, six RBIs and one HR). Nola is susceptible to giving up the long ball, and Betway has Kirk at +450 to hit a home run. Sprinkle a little money on this one.
