Trade deadline uncertainty clouds Toronto, but Guerrero Jr. props, Bieber strikeouts and the Under offer intriguing betting value
As I write this, Aug. 3, 9:46 a.m. EST, the Toronto Blue Jays’ go-forward plan through the last two months of what has been a disappointing 2026 campaign has become clearer.
Last night came the news that the Jays traded starting pitcher Kevin Gausman to the Chicago Cubs for two middling prospects, exactly what I had hoped would not be the case, with the team just 4.5 games out of an American League wild-card spot.
That news came a few hours after the team announced it had acquired starting pitcher Jameson Taillon from those same Cubs.
Then, at 9:39 a.m. EST this morning, came news from Jeff Passan (who’s a credible source, unlike with most social media chatter) that the Jays had acquired RHP Jose Soriano (9-6, 3.29 ERA, 127 Ks, tied for 22nd in MLB) from the L.A. Angels. A stud.
The issue for fans – and people betting on the team – had been whether the Jays buy or sell. I’ve been calling for a bit of both. If you saw my previous Jays’ betting posts, I thought they would sell, but they would also make a major upgrade. I thought that would be on the hitting side.
They would augment the roster, operate more like the Dodgers, spend the enormous capital at their disposal under Rogers’ ownership, and build on their fourth-place standing in MLB attendance this season. It’s a money machine down there.
If you’re going to try to add prospects to your system, Gausman made some sense, since he had made comments about retiring after this season, he is in the last year of his contract, your other starting pitchers have looked stronger of late, and you backfilled by acquiring Taillon, and now in a huge way with Soriano.
In MLB betting at Betway, before the Soriano news broke, the Blue Jays’ World Series odds had dropped to +7000, while their American League pennant odds were at +5000.
Keep your phone handy through the day. Other Jays whose contracts expire are centre fielder Daulton Varsho, and pitchers Shane Bieber and Max Scherzer.
That brings us to tonight, as the Jays are in Houston to play the Astros. That same Bieber (2-2, 5.74 ERA) is scheduled to start, trying to flush an absolutely horrendous start in Washington against the Nationals on July 28, where he lasted just two-thirds of an inning, allowing four earned runs and issuing six walks. Bieber threw just 15 strikes on 42 pitches.
Bieber goes up against Cristian Javier (1-1, 7.17 ERA) for the Astros tonight. The Astros sit in first place in the AL West, 2.5 games up on the Texas Rangers.
At Betway, the Astros are -130 Moneyline favorites, while the Blue Jays are +110. The Runline has Toronto at +1.5 (-180) and Houston at -1.5 (+135). The Total is set at 9.5 runs, with the Over at +110 and the Under at -130.
I am looking at that strikeout prop for Bieber (that’s if he doesn’t get traded before first pitch). Betway has Bieber 5+ strikeouts at +135.
That Under 9.5 runs (-125) also makes sense, since both clubs have been inconsistent offensively. Toronto, especially, has struggled to generate runs lately. If Bieber starts and looks anything like the pitcher the Jays expected when they acquired him, he’ll bounce back from that Washington game.
Javier brings swing-and-miss stuff that can neutralize Toronto’s struggling offence.
There have also been rumours of a George Springer trade ahead of today’s MLB trade deadline, making his player props a risky proposition if a deal materializes. Instead, I’d target Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to record 3+ total bases (hits only) at +260. With Bieber coming off a disastrous outing in his last start, I’d rather back Toronto’s biggest bat.
The acquisition of Soriano signals the Blue Jays still believe this core has enough to make a run at an American League wild-card spot. That should add another layer of urgency for Guerrero. If he rediscovers the form he showed down the stretch last season, he’s more than capable of delivering the kind of multi-hit performance needed to cash this prop.
