TPC Southwind rewards accuracy and ball-striking, putting Matsuyama, Fleetwood and Burns firmly on the futures betting radar
The FedEx St. Jude Championship tees off tomorrow, the opening event of the three-tournament FedExCup Playoffs, played at TPC Southwind in Memphis, Tennessee, a par-70, 7,288-yard course.
Key points for bettors: This isn’t a typical PGA Tour event. The top 70 players in the season-long FedExCup standings qualify for the tournament. From there, only the top 50 advance to the BMW Championship, followed by the top 30 reaching the Tour Championship.
This weekend’s tournament is a 72-hole, no-cut event, so players who start poorly can still play all four rounds.
Justin Rose is the defending champion, having defeated J.J. Spaun in a playoff in 2025.
If you look at what analysts are saying, look at what TPC Southwind rewards. The emphasis there is on accuracy and ball-striking – so focus on players picking up strokes on approach, regularly giving themselves birdie opportunities. There’s plenty of trouble for players spraying drives. So, accuracy off the tee over pure distance.
In golf betting at Betway, going into the start of the tournament tomorrow, Scottie Scheffler is the runaway favorite at +450, followed by Rory McIlroy (+1200), Xander Schauffele (+1600), Sam Burns (+1800), Tommy Fleetwood (+1800), Cameron Young (+2000), Collin Morikawa (+2000), and Hideki Matsuyama (+2000).
Who am I taking? Well, Scheffler, the No. 1-ranked player in the world, profiles well here, obviously. So does Matsuyama, who won here previously (2024), and a previous win is meaningful when you’re assessing your picks. Burns too, at +1800, a good outright value bet.
Scheffler is unquestionably the man to beat at the FedEx St. Jude Championship, but bettors face a familiar question heading into the FedExCup Playoffs: Is the world’s best golfer worth backing at +450 against a 69-player field (Daniel Berger withdrew due to injury), or is there better value farther down the board?
The format makes things interesting for bettors wagering Top 10 or Top 20, because a crappy Thursday doesn’t automatically kill your wager.
I am going with placement bets for this tournament, especially on the guys who profile well here – so guys like Scheffler, Matsuyama, Sam Burns, and Tommy Fleetwood. And Rose, the defending champion.
My second pick is Matsuyama Top 10 (+225). He won here in 2024 at 17-under, beating Viktor Hovland and Schauffele by two. The PGA Tour has Matsuyama third in its power rankings this week, behind Scheffler and McIlroy. And he hasn’t finished outside the top 20 in his past five appearances at TPC Southwind.
I’ll also sprinkle some cash on Fleetwood Top 10 (+187 at Betway).
McIlroy is coming off a competitive layoff – hasn’t played since the Open Championship. So, I’ll stay away from Rory.
Golf Digest’s current power rankings have Scheffler No. 1, Burns No. 2, Cameron Young No. 3, Morikawa No. 5, Fleetwood No. 6 and Matsuyama No. 7.
And finally, what about a little cover with Burns? He’s a solid outright winner pick, but for a Top 5 finish, he’s +400.
It makes more sense sprinkling money on Top 5 and Top 10, with better value among three or four guys, rather than the favourite Scheffler.
