Toronto enters a pivotal Yankees series just two games out of a wild-card spot after winning five straight series
With 11 wins in their past 17 games, and two games out of the last American League wild card spot this morning, the Toronto Blue Jays (59-64) are back in the playoff conversations. Players feel it. Fans feel it.
They’ve won five straight series. New additions Brett Bateman and Charles McAdoo have brought some energy to the top of the batting order that has fed down to the rest of the lineup.
Just 39 games left in the season, though, and a pivotal three-game series against the New York Yankees (68-53) this weekend. And it’s not going to be easy for Toronto, as the Yankees have lined up Gerrit Cole, Cy Young Award candidate Cam Schlittler and Ryan Weathers for the weekend.
Still, the Jays are playing great baseball of late. Despite injuries and some subtractions at the Aug. 4 trade deadline, there are still key elements of a roster core that went to a World Series last fall.
The good news for the Jays is the race for the AL wild card has been a sea of mediocrity all season.
Tonight’s game is 7:15 p.m. EST at Rogers Centre in Toronto. The Blue Jays have a home record of 31-32, while the Yankees’ record on the road is 37-26.
Cole (6-5, 3.35 ERA, 87Ks, 1.08 WHIP) starts tonight for the Yankees. Shane Bieber goes for the Blue Jays (3-2, 5.48 ERA, 32 Ks, 1.66 WHIP). That’s two pitchers who have both made recent recoveries from Tommy John surgery and are in different stages of their comebacks.
In MLB betting at Betway this morning, the Yankees are moneyline favourites at -150, with the Blue Jays at +125. On the run line, New York is -1.5 (+110), while Toronto is +1.5 (-130). The total is set at 7.5 runs, with the Over at -120, and the Under at +100.
If you think Cole gives New York a meaningful starting pitching advantage, take the plus-money run line since it offers more value than laying -150 on the moneyline. That Toronto run line is expensive at -130.
Both teams are 6-4 in their past 10 games, but the Yankees have better overall pitching and power. The Yankees, like the Blue Jays, have key injuries, most notably Aaron Judge, Cody Bellinger, Giancarlo Stanton and Carlos Rodon. The Jays are down a ton of guys, most recently starting pitcher Trey Yesavage, out now after knee surgery.
Alejandro Kirk is 12 for 34 with a home run in his past ten games. Ben Rice has led the Yankees with 20 doubles, three triples and 32 home runs.
I am going Yankees -1.5 run line, and the Under 7.5, at that plus money. The Jays offence has been better of late, but Cole’s command and strikeout ability should keep them in check. We’ve talked a lot about how inconsistent the Jays’ offence has been all summer.
A multi-run Yankees win is realistic if their offence shows up, since while Bieber has been improving since returning from the IL, he’s been hit and miss. That disastrous start in Washington against the Nationals was only a few weeks ago (July 28, 0.2 IP, 6 walks, 4 ERs). He had two 5.2-inning starts after that, giving up nine hits and a run in a win over Houston, and six hits and five runs in a loss to Philadelphia.
Again, that plus money on the run line makes it more attractive than a money line bet.
Bieber has been giving up a lot of walks, so I’m taking the Over on 2.5 walks (+135) for him.
And while it’s been an average season for the Blue Jays’ Vladimir Guerrero Jr., he always gets jacked to play the Yankees.
Is this the night he hits his first home run this season at Rogers Centre? He’s come close of late. He’s +500 at Betway to hit one tonight. I’m going to sprinkle a little on that today.
