Toronto turns to Shane Bieber against strikeout ace Jesus Luzardo, with the betting market heavily favouring Philadelphia
Do the Toronto Blue Jays have it in them to pull off a sweep over the Philadelphia Phillies, as the teams prep for Game 3 of their series this afternoon?
Toronto is down to 44 games left in the season and is 3.5 games out of the final American League wild card spot. They’re 7-3 in their past ten, propelled by some strong starting pitching of late. That’s the good news.
Last night it was 42-year-old Max Scherzer’s turn, who delivered 5.1 innings, giving up two runs (both were home runs), with four strikeouts.
Today’s game is 1:35 p.m. EST at Citizens Bank Park. Shane Bieber (3-2, 5.11 ERA, 1.68 WHIP, 28Ks) starts for the Jays. Jesus Luzardo (10-5, 3.36 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, sixth in MLB with 164 strikeouts) goes for the Phillies.
In MLB betting at Betway, the Phillies are big Moneyline favourites at -225, the Jays +185. On the Run line, Toronto is +1.5 (-110), Philadelphia -1.5 (-110). The Total is 8.5 (Over -105 Under -115).
So, the market sees a fairly substantial mismatch, which is not a surprise with Luzardo on the mound for Philadelphia. Bieber bounced back with a much stronger start in his last outing, a 3-1 win over Houston, but before that came a disastrous start in Washington against the Nationals, where he lasted just two-thirds of an inning, giving up four runs and walking six.
At -225, you’re risking $225 to win $100, so I’m staying away from that.
I was thinking about this, watching Scherzer and Nathan Lukes with that game-winning home run last night. The Blue Jays are essentially in playoff mode right now, even with 40+ games out. And this is a core – even with starting pitcher Kevin Gausman, outfielder Daulton Varsho, and reliever Jeff Hoffman all traded away – that went to a World Series last year. They’re conditioned for playoff-type baseball, even two months from the end of the season. They have the calluses.
Bieber is a recent Cy Young Award winner (2020), two years out from Tommy John surgery, still working through the effects of that, but I think he matches Scherzer last night, and Jose Soriano and Dylan Cease before him, and comes out strong today.
At +185 you’re being compensated handsomely for taking the Jays as underdogs.
Alas, being conservative, I am leaning Jays +1.5 (-110), if they can get into Philadelphia’s bullpen early. I am paying some juice, but with the up-and-down season they’ve had, I need that layer of protection.
Plus, Philly is in a battle for one of the three National League wild-card spots, and they’re going to be extra motivated not to drop a series sweep to the Jays, especially with Luzardo on the mound.
So, with the Jays’ Run line, Toronto can lose by one run, and my bet still wins. Much safer. The market has good reason to favour Philly, but Toronto has spent the past two nights beating the pitching matchup, including overcoming a four-run Phillies sixth last night to win in extras.
Luzardo is a beast, with a high strikeout rate of 10.8 strikeouts per nine innings on average. I am taking 6+ strikeouts for Luzardo today (-210; 8+ Ks is +200 at Betway).
Bieber’s been great overall since the Jays brought him over from Cleveland at the 2025 August trade deadline, and there’s nothing but fond memories of his performances during last fall’s World Series run, but he’s the weaker of the two starters today.
How much weaker is the question bettors must weigh. Last night’s game went 11 innings, and both managers had to extend their relief staffs. Check out bullpen availability once today’s lineups are clearer.
Also, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., with his seventh home run of the season last night and 2-for-4, looked like playoff Vladdy for the first time this season. Here’s hoping he jumps on a heater. A home run prop for Guerrero Jr. at Betway this morning is +450.
