Toronto leans on José Soriano against Zack Wheeler, while bettors weigh the under, Toronto's run line and Louis Varland's recent struggles
A big area of concern as the Toronto Blue Jays head to Philadelphia tonight to play the Phillies in the first game of a three-game series is the leaks in closer Louis Varland’s game.
Varland’s been nails since taking over from Jeff Hoffman as the team’s closer a month into the season. The statistics bear that out – 24 saves (tied for 8th in MLB), a 1.38 ERA, 74 strikeouts, a 1.02 WHIP.
Varland has hit a rough patch the past week, though, and that’s something bettors need to keep in mind. Aug. 2 against the St. Louis Cardinals, he entered a 1-1 game in the ninth and allowed four runs (not all earned), leading to a 5-1 loss.
Then yesterday against the Chicago Cubs was an absolute killer for a Jays’ team holding on by their teeth, chasing down the final American League wild-card spot. With the Jays up 2-0, after grinding to be in that position, and with two outs in the ninth inning, Varland gave up a devastating two-home-run home run to Alex Bregman to tie the game. The Cubs would win 3-2 in extra innings.
It is likely fatigue. But it’s giving bettors another angle to consider if tonight’s game is close late in the game. Toronto’s bullpen has been a strength in what has been a challenging season.
The Blue Jays sit 3.5 games out of the wild card this morning, with 46 games left to play.
Tonight’s game is 6:45 p.m. EST at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia (62-54), with Toronto (54-62) rolling out starting pitcher Jose Soriano (9-6, 3.37 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 127 SOs) acquired at the Aug. 3 trade deadline in a deal with the Los Angeles Angels. The Phillies counter tonight with Zack Wheeler (10-2, 2.49 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, 126 SOs).
In MLB betting at Betway, the Phillies are -225 Moneyline favourites, while the Blue Jays are +185 underdogs. The run line has Toronto at +1.5 (-115) and Philadelphia at -1.5 (-105). The total is set at 7.5 runs, with the Over priced at -115 and the Under at -105.
Toronto is 26-31 on the road, and Philadelphia is 31-28 at home. The Phillies have hit 145 total home runs to rank eighth in MLB.
Bryce Harper has 22 doubles, three triples and 24 homers for the Phillies. Kazuma Okamoto has 15 doubles, 24 HRs and 70 RBIs for the Jays.
In the Jays’ favour is their strong play of late – 6-4 in their past ten games, while Philly is 5-5. Toronto has a MASH clinic of injuries, but the ones to monitor over the day are updates on Vladimir Guerrero Jr., who has sat out the past two games with a hamstring issue, and Luis Urias, day-to-day with an undisclosed injury.
Derek Hill (shoulder) and Andrew Painter (hamstring) are day-to-day for the Phillies.
Bettors must decide whether Soriano can neutralize enough of Philadelphia’s lineup to keep the total under 7.5 runs while giving the Blue Jays a chance to cover the +1.5-run line.
That’s where I am leaning tonight.
Wheeler is a Cy Young Award candidate, so that Under 7.5 looks even more enticing and gives them a big advantage. I am taking his plus-money 7+ strikeout prop (+130). He regularly works deep into games and has elite swing-and-miss stuff.
I think Philly comes out and scores first (-125 at Betway) and wins the game, but it will be tight. Take that Jays’ +1.5 run line at -115. That and the Under 7.5 (-115) for me, today. Soriano gives the Jays a good chance to keep the Phillies offence in check.
