Toronto goes with Trey Yesavage in a crucial Fenway matchup, with the Runline and player props offering value despite Boston's edge
The talk around the Toronto Blue Jays today, as they enter the most pivotal series of their season, in Boston against the streaking Red Sox, comes down to buying or selling as the Aug. 3 MLB trade deadline approaches.
Fifty-nine games to go in the season, 12.5 games out of first place in the American League, and more tellingly, six games out of an AL Wild Card spot.
In MLB betting at Betway, in the World Series Winner futures market, the Jays now sit at +5000.
They’re in playoff mode, now. Think last fall, the tension during every game of the American League playoffs and apply that to late July.
Tonight the Blue Jays (47-56, 21-26 away) take on the Red Sox (52-49, 23-28 at home) at Fenway Park in Boston, starting at 7:15 p.m. EST. Trey Yesavage (4-5, 3.78 ERA) is on the mound for the Jays, against Patrick Sandoval (0-0, 4.82 ERA).
At Betway, the Red Sox are slight Moneyline favourites at -125, with the Blue Jays at +105. Toronto is getting 1.5 runs on the Runline (-190), while Boston is +140 to cover -1.5. The Total is set at 8.5 runs (Over -120, Under +100), suggesting oddsmakers expect a relatively high-scoring game.
This isn’t viewed as a mismatch, a tip of the cap to Yesavage. The Blue Jays are going to need 2025 playoff Yesavage. Then you had yesterday’s stellar Shane Bieber performance in the Jays’ 3-1 win over the Rays in Toronto – 7.0 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 3 K, 0 BB. That’s two A+ starts in a row now for Bieber.
There’s Max Scherzer pitching well in his last Buffalo Bison rehab start.
The spotlight has been on trading Kevin Gausman, with media stories on updated no-trade lists, but if they could get to Gausman and turn his season around, the “Blue Jays sell-off” narrative making its way around might go in the other direction.
They instead acquire offence at the trade deadline – Francisco Lindor, anyone? Look, the Red Sox were dead in the water, then won six in a row coming out of the All-Star Game break, on top of nine games in a row before the break, before finally losing to the Baltimore Orioles on Wednesday.
I’m not saying that’s a likely scenario for the Jays. I am saying there’s always a chance; the bones of that World Series team are still in place, the organization doesn’t need to sell off for payroll savings purposes, and they might say, to hell with it, let’s stay the course.
If you’re Ross Atkins, why trade players who took you to a World Series last fall for middling prospects?
The players are certainly going to want to see the organization stay the course.
That’s why I am putting my marbles down tonight on a strong Yesavage performance. Boston is only a modest favourite, with the market expecting a competitive game. The Total of 8.5 with the Over at -120 suggests bettors are leaning the Over, interesting with a quality Jays’ starter on the mound and the state of the Blue Jays offence of late (19th in MLB is team batting average, dead last in team RBIs, at 388, fourth last in HRs at 102).
I am going to go Blue Jays’ Runline, since I like the value there. I think there’s a very good chance the Blue Jays win outright tonight, but I’ll take the 1.5-run cushion as insurance. I am paying some juice there, but I’ll take the protection against a one-run loss.
George Springer is bouncing back on the hitting front. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has lost me money all summer, so I’m staying away from him on the player prop side.
I am going to take a Springer prop: Total Hits + Runs + RBIs at Betway (-125), since he usually finds multiple ways to contribute.
I also like Yesavage’s strikeout props: Five or more strikeouts is priced at -210, while seven or more is +200, if you’re looking for plus money.
