The second half begins with contenders eyeing upgrades, stars returning from injury and several surprise teams trying to prove they're for real
I am searching for another focus on the sports betting front this morning, anything, since I woke up still working through my anger towards England manager Thomas Tuchel, who mismanaged yesterday’s World Cup semifinal against Argentina.
Those of you who watched it – and had money on England, like I did – know what I am talking about. Tuchel, his team up 1-0, incomprehensibly had his team lie back against an Argentina team led by perhaps the greatest player of all time, Lionel Messi, swapping in three defenders, only to watch the inevitable Argentina tsunami come, with two goals after the 85th minute.
It should never have happened that way, snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. There are many pissed-off people among my British brethren this morning, and it’s justifiable. The orange haze from Canada’s wildfire smoke is a fitting metaphor for my mood.
So, let’s brighten things up and go a little baseball – World Series futures, as players make their way back to their teams after the All-Star break.
In MLB betting at Betway, the L.A. Dodgers still top the World Series winner futures market, at +175. That’s followed by the New York Yankees (+500), Seattle Mariners (+900), Milwaukee Brewers (+1000), Atlanta Braves (+1100), Philadelphia Phillies (+1100), Tampa Bay Rays (+1400), Chicago Cubs (+2000), Texas Rangers (+2000), and the Toronto Blue Jays (+3000).
What are the storylines that will most impact betting lines?
The Aug. 3 trade deadline is coming fast and will reshape the betting market. As Jeff Passan from ESPN said, the standings this year are tighter than in past years, and it’s tougher to distinguish the teams that will be trade deadline buyers or sellers. Bettors need to project what teams will try to improve their rosters.
It also means that every contender believes they have a legitimate chance to make the playoffs, which will likely lead to a very active trade market over the next two weeks.
Injury lists are another thing bettors need to focus on, especially for superstar players like the Yankees’ Aaron Judge, who’s been out since late May with a fractured rib. The Dodgers’ pitching staff is banged up. Will they hold up or acquire more pieces, pushing for a World Series three-peat? Any setbacks or update will hugely impact their futures odds.
Overall, how teams recover post-break and manage workloads will shake up playoff odds and futures values.
There have been several surprising teams this season, led by the Chicago White Sox (50-45, tied for first in the American League Central, tied with the Cleveland Guardians), after losing 121 games in 2024, the Miami Marlins (52-45, four games out of first place in the NL East, in a wildcard spot), and the Tampa Bay Rays (56-38, first in the AL East).
The Rays were overlooked going into the season but have instead surged.
For bettors, identifying a surprise contender before the market fully adjusts can provide significant value. Are the surprise teams legitimate World Series threats or just feel-good stories during the first half?
I am focusing on the Detroit Tigers and how they come out of the break. At 44-52, 6.5 games behind first place in the American League Central (7-3 in their last ten, though), 3.5 games out of the wildcard.
If they come out slow and slip back even more in the standings, that puts two-time Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal into play as the biggest prize on the trade market. The Dodgers, Cubs and Braves, at the least, would jump in and go hard at acquiring him. Teams that land a frontline starter like Skubal will see their futures shorten.
And on the local front, what do the Blue Jays do? Buy or sell? Starting pitcher Shane Bieber seems to be working back into form, judging by his last start, and the starting staff will be getting Max Scherzer back. That would give them a core starting five of Bieber, Trey Yesavage, Kevin Gausman, Scherzer and all-star Dylan Cease. That’s pretty solid. Bettors should keep an eye on Bieber’s next start – Saturday at home against the White Sox.
But Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s (six home runs) and George Springer’s subpar seasons are reaching the point where I think the Blue Jays, if they buy at the trade deadline, will prioritize offence over pitching.
