Toronto turns to José Soriano at Tampa Bay as five teams sit on 61 wins in a remarkably crowded AL wild-card race
Bettors woke up this morning to an American League wild-card race as tight as ever – five teams now at 61 wins (the Baltimore Orioles hold the third spot, though, thanks to head-to-head tiebreakers).
The Toronto Blue Jays (61-65) are one of those five teams, heading into Tropicana Field for a three-game series against the first-place Tampa Bay Rays (75-49) tonight.
The Blue Jays are down to 36 games left in their season. The good news for them – after this series against the Rays, and after that a three-game set in New York against the Yankees, the Jays have ten series left, all against teams below .500, including series against the Texas Rangers, Detroit Tigers, and Baltimore Orioles (two series with them), three other teams also at 61 games.
Which brings us to tonight in St. Petersburg.
Game time is 6:40 p.m. EST, with newly acquired Jose Soriano (9-6, 3.16 ERA, 134 Ks, 1.25 WHIP) up against the Rays’ Nick Martinez (12-3, 2.74 ERA, 78Ks, 1.09 WHIP).
In MLB betting at Betway this morning, the Rays are -140 moneyline favourites, with the Blue Jays at +120. On the runline, Tampa Bay is -1.5 (+150), while Toronto is +1.5 (-200). The total is set at 7.5 runs, with both the Over and Under priced at -110.
The Rays are 42-21 at home. The Jays are 28-32 on the road. Both teams are 7-3 in their last ten games. The Rays have dominated the season series, 8-2.
The Rays have the advantage in offence, though, and that’s even truer with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. out of the lineup for the Jays with a concussion.
With that pitching matchup, especially with Soriano coming off a 6-4 win over the Boston Red Sox, where he went six innings, giving up four hits and one earned run, with four Ks, I like the Under 7.5 at -110.
The Blue Jays have struggled offensively all season, averaging 3.9 runs per game this season, second last in MLB with 116 HRs, and last in team RBIs (470). Just total failure at the plate. Yet here they are, still in a wild-card race.
That moneyline gap isn’t massive, so taking the Jays +1.5 runline offers value as a secondary play, hedging against a close loss. The Rays don’t typically blow people out.
Huge game for the Jays, and Soriano knows that full well. I like the 6+ strikeout prop at Betway, at plus money (+185). He has averaged 5.58 strikeouts per start this season and has allowed only two earned runs over 10.2 IP in Toronto so far.
Alejandro Kirk is 13 for 31 with a home run and seven RBIs over the past 10 games for Toronto. Yandy Diaz is 16 for 46 with three homers and six RBIs over the past 10 games for the Rays.
