Toronto enters unbeaten in three, but injuries and a red-hot Messi make Inter Miami a daunting task
Lionel Messi is expected to play tonight for Inter Miami (11-6-3) when they step on the field at Nu Stadium to take on Toronto FC (7:30 p.m. EST start time).
For Toronto (4-7-9), after a stretch of 12 winless games, the last two matches have shown signs of life – a win last weekend over New England Revolution and a come-from-behind tie versus Charlotte at BMO Field Wednesday night.
For Toronto, sitting in 11th spot in the Eastern Conference of MLS, three points away from making the single-elimination wild card match (the winner then plays the No. 1 seed in the MLS playoffs), it’s a sprint now.
Miami, defending MLS Cup champions, sit second in the overall league table, and Messi is playing at an MVP level – 13 goals and 10 assists in 17 games.
The last time the two teams played, in May, in front of over 41,000 people at BMO Field in Toronto, days before the start of the World Cup, Miami won handily 4-2, with Messi tallying a goal and two assists.
Messi is coming off a strong game Wednesday against Philadelphia, where he had a goal and an assist in a 2-2 draw.
Messi was fined by the league after an incident against Philadelphia, when he slapped Union’s Quinn Sullivan on the back of the neck as the two exchanged words, but no suspension was issued.
In soccer betting at Betway, Miami is a heavy -286 favourite, with Toronto at +600 and the draw at +450.
Miami games have been high scoring of late – an average of 4.6 in their last five. The overs have been hitting a lot in their matches, so I am leaning Over 3.5 (-175) in tonight’s game versus Toronto.
Anytime goalscorer for Messi is -350 at Betway, and 1+ assists is -134, and -750 for an anytime goal or assist.
Toronto’s Niklas Dorsch, who signed with TFC on July 28, has made an immediate impact, scoring two goals in three MLS matches, and has been a big part of the renewed energy in the squad over the last two games, quickly becoming an important piece of the central midfield.
However, he’s out for a while with a broken cheekbone – suffered late in Wednesday’s 3-3 draw with Charlotte – a huge loss going into tonight. Toronto is also without captain Jonathan Osorio (injury) and Walker Zimmerman (suspension).
For bettors, can Toronto keep the score respectable? That might be the more interesting question. The moneyline price tells you how unlikely a TFC victory is, given all the factors working against them.
The team-total and goal markets, however, give bettors more to work with. Toronto has scored five goals in its past two matches and enters tonight unbeaten in three. And as mentioned, Miami has been involved in some high-scoring games of late.
At Betway, both teams to score and Over 2.5 goals is -175, while both teams to score (yes) on its own is a steep -236.
A more intriguing option is Inter Miami to win and both teams to score (yes) at +115. That plays into the idea that Toronto can find the net without asking TFC to pull off the upset.
Toronto Over 0.5 team goals is also expensive at -275. And while Over 1.5 TFC goals offers a much better return at +170, I’m not convinced Toronto scores twice against Miami.
Those are the goal markets I’m looking at for tonight.
