Russell’s sprint win and strong Mercedes pace make him an intriguing +225 play in the final Dutch Grand Prix at Zandvoort
Formula 1 racing is back after a month off, with the Dutch Grand Prix today (2 p.m. BST) through the sand dunes at Circuit Zandvoort.
At the last race, the Hungarian Grand Prix on July 26, Lando Norris delivered his first of the 2026 season – McLaren’s first win of the year as well. Norris finished 15.080 seconds ahead of Red Bull’s Max Verstappen, with Mercedes championship leader Kimi Antonelli taking third.
That win was the 12th of Norris’ career and sent everyone off for a break with Antonelli holding a 50-point lead in the driver standings.
Today it’s Norris again, who yesterday grabbed pole position in a tight final qualifying session, producing a late lap of 1:11.163 to edge Mercedes’ George Russell by just 0.102 seconds. Kimi Antonelli qualified third, only 0.133 seconds off Norris, while Oscar Piastri put the second McLaren fourth.
Lewis Hamilton and Charles Leclerc qualified fifth and sixth for Ferrari, while home favourite Max Verstappen struggled with the balance of his Red Bull and could manage only seventh.
Today will be the last race at Zandvoort (72 laps of 4.3 km, for a total distance of 306 km), on the Dutch coast, before it’s taken off the Formula 1 calendar. Piastri won here in 2025, for McLaren.
It’s the Dutchman Verstappen, though, with Red Bull, who’s the guy to watch here today. Verstappen won here three times in a row, 2021-23. He’s been unhappy with his car all season, but you can’t count him out of getting his first win of the season here today.
Today’s forecast is sunny, with highs of 20 degrees Celsius.
Track position and strategy carry more weight at Zandvoort than simply being the fastest car. It’s a track that’s narrow, where overtaking is difficult.
That puts Norris in the pole position in an even stronger position, if you’re putting money down on the race today. Every winner since the race returned here in 2021 started from the pole.
In F1 betting at Betway, Norris is the +162 favourite to win, followed by Russell and Antonelli at +225, Hamilton at +1400, Leclerc at +1600, Piastri at +2000 and Verstappen at +3300.
A good approach may be to spread exposure across podium, top-six and head-to-head markets, rather than concentrating everything on the outright winner.
Verstappen starting seventh makes him particularly interesting in position-gain and top-six markets, while safety cars and pit strategy could create better live-betting opportunities as the race unfolds.
I’m going to lean on Verstappen today – I’m going for a podium finish for him, at +750. That’s a big number on an elite driver at his home track without requiring Red Bull to suddenly have race-winning pace.
I’m also taking Russell to win – he won Saturday’s Sprint, plus Mercedes has shown excellent race pace at Zandvoort. Better value at +225, making the run to Turn 1.
