Dodgers remain the team to beat, but Phillies offer futures value while several strong bets emerge from Monday’s MLB slate
On the big picture betting front, MLB is rounding the turn, soon heading down the September dash to the finish line, with the Toronto Blue Jays just one game out of the last American League wild card spot.
Back on Aug. 3, with the Jays buried deep in the standings, most books would have given you +6000 odds on Toronto winning the World Series.
Then a few things happened. The team traded off assets with expiring contracts – Kevin Gausman, Daulton Varsho – but also acquired A-List assets with term – starting pitcher Jose Soriano.
Since the deadline, the Jays have gone 9-5, a brutal stretch of games, every day against playoff-position opponents.
In MLB betting at Betway this morning, the Blue Jays are +5000 to win the World Series, just one of several meaningful repricings we’ve seen over the past few weeks.
It’s still the L.A. Dodgers versus everyone else on the World Series futures front. At Betway, the Dodgers are +170, with the New York Yankees next at +750.
The Dodgers have close to a 40% implied probability of winning the World Series, after they went out and added Tarik Skubal and Kris Bubic at the trade deadline.
We just saw the Yankees in town to play the Blue Jays, where they lost two of three, and they clearly have problems, especially with an offence that’s in a rut. News reports on Friday detailed how slugger Aaron Judge was playing catch as he continues to work his way back from a broken rib.
“Just part of the ramp-up to baseball activity,” said manager Aaron Boone to the Associated Press. “Hopefully he’ll continue to progress through this week. We’ll see what else gets introduced.”
Oddsmakers look at that all-star calibre starting rotation, though – Gerrit Cole, Max Fried, Cam Schlittler, Ryan Weathers, Carlos Rodon.
The Milwaukee Brewers have the best record in baseball, at 77-48, and sit behind the Yankees in World Series futures at +850. Following the Brewers are the Atlanta Braves (+1100), Tampa Bay Rays (+1100), Boston Red Sox (+1200), Chicago Cubs (+1200), Houston Astros (+1800) and Philadelphia Phillies (+2000).
The Yankees have a lot of work to do to justify that short World Series price.
The Cubs’ line shortened from +2000 to where they are now after adding Gausman, Clay Holmes and other depth pieces, a great example of how the trade deadline can move a futures market.
There’s value in the Phillies, for sure, at that price. Check out their starting staff, anchored by Cristopher Sanchez (15-4, 2.54 ERA, 181 Ks, for 6th in MLB, and a 1.19 WHIP), Zach Wheeler (10-4, 2.89, 137 Ks, tied for 25th, and 1.00 WHIP), and Jesus Luzardo (11-5, 3.23, 185 Ks, 5th in MLB, and 1.15 WHIP).
Teams would be lucky to have one of those guys. I see enormous value in the Phillies with that post-season rotation.
And don’t sleep on the Rays, a team the Jays will see firsthand tomorrow as their three-game series kicks off at Tropicana Field, even though they didn’t make any flashy trade deadline move. The Rays have the best record in the American League.
Some sprinkles of best bets for today’s slate of games: Dodgers -2.5 (-110) against the Colorado Rockies, a better way to attack that game rather than the -250 moneyline at Betway, and the Cubs-White Sox over (8.5 at Betway, at +105).
The Cubs are No. 2 in MLB in runs (645), the White Sox are No. 9 (594). The White Sox are 5th in HRs (164), the Cubs 8th (159). The Cubs are 3rd in MLB in OPS (.755), the White Sox 8th (.730). Two titanic offences go head-to-head.
Cubs and White Sox get going at 8 p.m. EST, Dodgers-Rockies at 8:40 p.m. EST.
I’ve also got my eye on the Phillies -1.5 (-125) against the Miami Marlins (64-61), with Sanchez on the mound tonight. Game time there is 6:40 p.m. EST. The Phillies are looking to hold onto that wild-card spot.
