Our Ravens vs Falcons betting picks for NFL Week 5 2026 include odds analysis, best bets, key matchups and picks for your same-game parlay
For sports bettors, tomorrow’s Baltimore Ravens-Atlanta Falcons game is one of Week 5’s more intriguing matchups, mostly because the Ravens won’t have MVP quarterback Lamar Jackson under center with an ankle injury.
Tyler Huntley is expected to start. That’s a significant factor in the betting market.
The game is tomorrow night at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, at 8:20 p.m. EST.
The key matchup is Ravens running back Derrick Henry against Atlanta’s run defence, with Jackson’s injury in mind. Atlanta leads the NFL in rushing defence, allowing 48.3 yards per game and 2.7 yards per carry through four games.
Then there’s the beast Henry, 6-foot-2 and 252 pounds, with 374 rushing yards and seven touchdowns, for a 4.2-yard average so far.
The Ravens will lean heavily on Henry to take pressure off Huntley. If Atlanta can contain him, that’s a stronger case for the Atlanta spread and the under on the total.
Another key matchup is Falcons running back Bijan Robinson against the Baltimore defence, which ranks tenth in the NFL in run defence excellence (100.0 rushing yards allowed per game).
This is a tough game to call, with two excellent running backs on both sides facing two excellent run defences.
Robinson is second in the NFL to the Chiefs’ Kenneth Walker III, with 494 rushing yards (Walker has 537). However, Baltimore is a tougher challenge than their recent opponents.
Third, Huntley faces the Atlanta pass defence. Against Tennessee last week, Huntley completed eight of nine passes for 63 yards, helping Baltimore secure a 24-18 win. Atlanta can challenge him by forcing him to throw.
Injuries for tomorrow: Baltimore is without Jackson, as well as C Cam Jurgens (concussion), LB Trey Hendrickson (finger), WR Ja’Kobi Lane (wrist) and TE Durham Smythe (Achilles), while CB Marlon Humphrey (calf), WR Zay Flowers (foot), and G Andrew Vorhees (foot) are questionable.
For the Falcons, LB Yasir Abdullah (hamstring) and CB A.J. Terrell (groin) are out, while OT Jake Matthews (groin), DE Za’Darius Smith (concussion), LB Divine Deablo (hamstring), and DE Samson Ebukam are questionable).
Here are my Ravens vs Falcons picks.
Ravens vs Falcons Odds
In NFL betting at Betway, the Falcons are -175 moneyline favourites against the Ravens (+145). Atlanta is also a 3.5-point spread favourite at +105, while Baltimore is getting 3.5 points at -125. The over/under is set at 43.5 points, with the over priced and the under at -110.
The Falcons are clear favourites. Who would have predicted that before the season? The spread, though, suggests a competitive game.
The slightly higher price on the under indicates a modest lean toward fewer points. That’s the Jackson factor at play.
Ravens vs Falcons Betting Trends
The Ravens are struggling against the spread, 1-3 this season, despite a 3-1 straight-up record. The Falcons have covered two straight games – 2-2 ATS overall.
The Ravens are 7-2 ATS as a road underdog since 2022, winning five of those nine games outright, according to NBC Sports.
Ravens vs Falcons Betting Picks
The clearest lean for me is Atlanta -3.5. Atlanta is at home, playing a primetime Sunday night game, on a two-game win streak. I am banking on their elite run defence neutralizing Henry enough to give Robinson and Falcons quarterback Michael Penix Jr. an edge on offence.
Huntley is a big downgrade at quarterback for Baltimore.
Atlanta has scored 80 over its past two games since Penix Jr. returned from a knee injury.
I’m also taking the under 43.5 (-115), since Huntley limits Baltimore’s explosiveness and third-down efficiency. The total has already come down from preseason/look ahead projections.
Finally, Robinson anytime touchdown for Atlanta (-250), since he is the engine back there and one of the hottest backs in the NFL. Robinson is the clear lead back in a high-usage role for a surging Falcons offence.
For my NFL picks, I’m looking at Robinson 80+ rushing yards (-170) and 90+ (-115). I’m leaning 90+ because it is considerably better value for just 10 additional yards.
