Our NFL Week 5 picks against the spread highlight the best Sunday NFL bets, featuring expert analysis, key trends and top ATS selections
Remind me to never, ever, bet on the Dallas Cowboys again. They remind me of the Toronto Maple Leafs, bloated with money, entitled, and incompetent; they haven’t won anything of substance in ages.
The Leafs actually haven’t been to a Stanley Cup Final since the Beatles were in the studio recording Sgt. Peppers Lonely Hearts Club Band. Their opponent last night, the Vegas Golden Knights, have been there three times in the last ten years!
Also last night, facing the 0-4 Tampa Bay Bucs, with quarterback Baker Mayfield out with a thumb injury, and 8.5-point favourites on home field, the Cowboys found a way to crap the bed yet again.
I had money down on the Cowboys spread and some CeeDee Lamb props. What a dope. Never again. Can’t trust them.
Anyway, here we go, into another weekend of NFL games, topped off with a Monday night beauty between the L.A. Rams (2-2) and Buffalo Bills (3-1).
Here are my NFL Week 5 picks against the spread.
NFL Week 5 Betting Landscape
I’m watching the Las Vegas Raiders, currently 4-0 ATS, the only unbeaten team against the spread in four weeks. The Raiders (3-1) visit New England to play the Patriots (2-2). The Raiders are 3.5-point underdogs.
I’m also watching the Bills Monday night, 3.5-point underdogs travelling to L.A. Defensive problems, rumours about knee problems for QB Josh Allen, and injuries make this a particularly interesting game for bettors – CB Christian Benford (toe), DE Landon Jackson, DB Dee Alford (ankle), DT Ed Oliver (knee), and WR DJ Moore (shoulder) are all listed as questionable.
NFL Week 5 Betting Trends
Dramatic swings in point spreads going into Week 5 have bettors asking whether to follow the market or look for value.
Take the Jacksonville Jaguars against the Philadelphia Eagles, for example, Sunday at 9:30 a.m. EST, being played at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in London.
The Jaguars sit at 7.5-point favourites in NFL betting at Betway, a big swing from the 3.5 they opened at. The Eagles are 2-2 straight up but 0-4 against the spread. The Jaguars are coming off a big 22-17 road win over the Cincinnati Bengals and has all the momentum.
The Eagles list RB Saquon Barkley (hamstring) and WR DeVonta Smith (hamstring) as questionable for Sunday’s game.
But 7.5 points?
Injuries as well – Lamar Jackson’s ankle injury is the most dramatic injury-driven betting storyline of Week 5, as his Baltimore Ravens (3-1) are now 3.5-point underdogs against the Atlanta Falcons (2-2), which is incredible to me. The Falcons are coming off a 45-24 win Monday night over the New Orleans Saints and their Le Gruyère Swiss Cheese defence.
NFL Week 5 Picks Against the Spread
Vegas Raiders (+3.5) vs New England Patriots
In my NFL betting picks, I like the Raiders here; I like them overall. Their coach, Klint Kubiak, is for real, and he’s tapped into a fountain of youth in quarterback Kirk Cousins. The Patriots were impressive in beating the Bills at Highmark Stadium last weekend, yes, but I don’t know if one impressive performance justifies making the Patriots favourites by more than a field goal.
Vegas nearly upset Kansas City last weekend and are averaging 28.8 points per game.
My pick: Vegas +3.5 (-105)
Detroit Lions (-5.5) vs Arizona Cardinals
I like the Lions ATS because of their run game advantage and Arizona’s defensive struggles.
The Lions are coming off a disappointing six-point loss to Carolina last weekend. Detroit’s run game, led by Jahmyr Gibbs, could exploit Arizona. Detroit averages 29.8 points per game, fourth in the NFL. Arizona allows 29.3 points per game – 29th in the NFL. Arizona has given up at least 30 points in three consecutive games.
My pick: Detroit -5.5 (-110)
Los Angeles Chargers (+3.5) vs Denver Broncos
The Chargers, on paper anyway, shouldn’t be where they are: winless in four games, with consecutive one-possession losses, including a 30-23 defeat to Seattle.
But Denver has struggled to generate consistent offence and scored only 14 points against the San Francisco 49ers last weekend. This is a divisional matchup where taking more than a field goal with the home underdog makes sense. All the Chargers have to do is avoid the turnovers – which is a big ask. Also, Broncos head coach Sean Payton says he will take on calling offensive plays, which gives me pause.
My pick: L.A. Chargers +3.5 (-115)
Sunday NFL Week 5 Parlay Picks
Here’s what I like: Falcons -3.5 versus Ravens, Vikings -2.5 versus Saints, Steelers -2.5 versus the Colts. That’s +583 at Betway. Jackson is out with the ankle (that’s official now), Minnesota is 4-0 with one of the NFL’s better defences, the Steelers are on extra rest, and the Colts defence has struggled to generate pressure.
