Our Bears vs Buccaneers betting picks for NFL Week 9 2026 include odds analysis, best bets, key matchups and picks for your same-game parlay
The Chicago Bears are emerging as legitimate Super Bowl favourites, led by the continued improvement of quarterback Caleb Williams and a trade for All-Pro defensive tackle Jeffery Simmons that has remade their defensive front.
They face another tough test tonight, hosting the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Soldier Field. Game time is 8:20 p.m. EST, on NBC. The weather forecast calls for 53 degrees and mostly clear skies.
Chicago (6-2) has won three straight, including an impressive 34-17 victory over defending Super Bowl champion Seattle on Monday night.
Since returning from a hamstring injury and rejoining the Bears’ starting lineup on Oct. 18 against the Atlanta Falcons, Williams has been outstanding, throwing for 860 yards, four touchdowns, and no interceptions in those three wins.
Don’t sleep on Tampa Bay (3-5), though. They have won three of their last four. Running back Bucky Irving has led the way, rushing for 170 yards and a touchdown in last week’s 16-0 shutout over Atlanta.
The Bucs lead the NFL in rushing, averaging 168.6 yards per game.
Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield is back after dislocating his thumb, but the injury’s effects are still unknown. In that win over Atlanta, Mayfield didn’t complete a pass. Receiver Emeka Egbuka is questionable for tonight’s game with a foot injury, though Netflix reports he will play.
The key matchup then is Tampa Bay’s powerful running game against Simmons and the Bears’ third-ranked rushing defence.
The Bucs have generated 12 takeaways over the last four games, so how does Williams fare there? Chicago is on a short week after the Monday night game, while Tampa Bay has had a full week to practice.
Here are my Bears vs Buccaneers picks.
Bears vs Buccaneers Odds
In NFL betting at Betway, the Bears are -260 moneyline favourites, while the Bucs are listed at +200. Chicago is favoured by 5.5 points (-115), with Tampa Bay at +5.5 (-105). The total is set at 47.5, with the Over priced at -115, and the Under at -105.
Bears vs Buccaneers Betting Trends
Chicago leads the NFL against the spread – 6-2 ATS on the season, and 18-9 ATS since the beginning of the 2025 season, tops in the NFL over that span, according to NBC Sports.
Tampa, meanwhile, has been 15-9 ATS as road underdogs since 2022, fifth-best in the NFL over that period, according to NBC Sports.
Bears vs Buccaneers Betting Picks
In my NFL picks, I am going to focus first on Williams on the prop betting front. In NFL betting, 225+ passing yards is -200 at Betway, and 250+ is -105. I’m going to go 250+.
Williams has averaged more than 282 passing yards in his four games since returning from injury. He’ll throw a lot tonight, given the good weather and Tampa’s stronger run defence.
I’m also staring at the Under 47.5 (-105), since both teams have shown they can control games through their rushing attacks. Atlanta isn’t the same level as the Bears in offensive efficiency; however, the Bucs contained Atlanta last week in that 16-0 game, showing how they can limit possessions.
Also, a very cautious, small-money lean on Bucs +5.5 (-105), with Chicago coming into the game on a short week and factoring in the strong Bucs’ rushing attack, which can control the clock.
Bears vs Buccaneers Same Game Parlay Picks
Building off my confidence in Williams, I am going to focus on Chicago here – Bucky Irving 60+ rushing yards, Colston Loveland 40+ receiving yards and Bears moneyline (+280 total).
Bears moneyline on its own is a hard pass at that -260 number. I think it will be a close game, with the Bears coming out on top.
Irving has gone over 60 rushing yards in five of eight games, and Loveland has gone 65, 69 and 65 receiving yards in those three wins.
