Our NFL Week 5 TD scorer picks spotlight Sunday’s best bets, featuring expert analysis, key trends and top TD picks across the slate
NFL Week 5 kicks off Sunday with 13 games, starting with an early London game between the Philadelphia Eagles and the Jacksonville Jaguars, with intriguing opportunities for bettors focused on touchdown scorer props.
The guessing game is fading four weeks into the season. We’re getting a clearer idea of which players are getting the ball in scoring situations, which offences are finding their rhythm, and which defences are vulnerable near the goal line.
Five injuries to watch if you’re kicking around making TD scorer bets. Saquon Barkley is the biggie. The Eagles running back has not practised this week with that hamstring injury and is expected to miss Sunday’s game. Keep an eye on Will Shipley’s anytime TD odds, as he will inherit most of the goal-line opportunities.
Ravens’ quarterback Lamar Jackson has also been ruled out of their game against the Atlanta Falcons with an ankle injury. Tyler Huntley will start in his place. That should put even more focus on Ravens running back Derrick Henry.
The biggest injury situation affecting the receiving corps Sunday is in Cincinnati, with both Ja’Marr Chase (concussion) and Tee Higgins (adductor) possibly out for their game against the Miami Dolphins.
Chase returned to practice yesterday but hasn’t been cleared for Sunday. If either receiver misses the game, the other gets more red-zone opportunities.
DeVonta Smith (hamstring) is expected to miss his second straight game for the Eagles, creating opportunities for the other receivers, especially tight end Dallas Goedert, if he plays (he’s still listed as questionable with a knee issue).
Here are my NFL Week 5 TD scorer picks.
Best NFL Week 5 Running Back TD Props
D’Andre Swift, Chicago Bears, Anytime Touchdown (-150)
Kyle Monangai has been ruled out with a toe injury, leaving Swift with more goal-line work against the Packers in Green Bay.
Swift leads the Bears’ red-zone rush attempts this year, while Green Bay has been soft against the run (139.3 rushing yards given up per game, 28th in the NFL).
Ashton Jeanty, Las Vegas Raiders, Anytime Touchdown, +100
Jeanty, the second-year player, has handled all six of Las Vegas’ carries inside the five-yard line over the Raiders’ four games (although he still doesn’t have a rushing touchdown), according to Pro Football Focus. He has two TDs as a receiver.
New England has allowed four rushing touchdowns so far and ranks 30th in rushing Expected Points Added, an advanced NFL stat that measures how much a running play improves or worsens a team’s expected scoring position, according to Pro Football Focus. That bodes well for Jeanty, since he dominates his team’s goal-line opportunities.
Other options: Bijan Robinson, Atlanta Falcons, anytime touchdown (-250).
Best NFL Week 5 Receiver TD Props
Nico Collins, Houston Texans, Anytime Touchdown (+140)
I am looking at what Collins did last week, returning from a hamstring issue – 7 catches for 118 yards and two touchdowns in the Week 4 loss to Dallas, making him the first Texans player to have at least 100 yards receiving and two TD catches in a single game since Tank Dell in November 2023.
He’s the clear priority focus for Texans’ QB C.J. Stroud, especially in the red zone. Both teams are 0-4 – tons of pressure there.
Amon-Ra St. Brown, Detroit Lions, Anytime Touchdown (-130)
It feels like every weekend we’re leaning on St. Brown, and he hasn’t given anyone a reason to doubt him. He’s scored five TDs in Detroit’s first four games. Arizona’s pass defence is vulnerable (233.8 yards per game, 22nd in the NFL).
Other options: Garrett Wilson, Jets, anytime touchdown (+140).
Best NFL Week 5 Quarterbacks TD Props
Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills, Anytime Touchdown (-115)
Allen has scored a rushing touchdown in all four Bills games so far this season, and leads the league with seven rushing touchdowns. He’s one of the more repeatable QB anytime TD bets on the board.
Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles, Anytime Touchdown (+200)
Back to the Jaguars game: with Barkley out, Hurts will have even more goal-line focus. Hurts has an established goal-line rushing role. The concern is the depleted Eagles offensive line.
Other options: Drake Maye, Patriots, anytime TD (+330), Jayden Daniels, Commanders, anytime TD (+225).
Best Anytime Touchdown Prop for Sunday
Best overall Week 5 touchdown scorer bet is Hurts anytime TD at +200. With Barkley’s availability a concern, Hurts will be an especially important part of the Eagles’ goal-line offence.
