Edmonton's home-field edge and B.C.'s stout run defence shape our top CFL betting picks for the Western Final, including spread and props.
The Edmonton Elks have waited 11 years to host a CFL playoff. Game. Now they are one win away from a Grey Cup berth, taking on the B.C. Lions in today’s Western Conference Final game.
The game starts at 6:30 p.m. EST, at Commonwealth Stadium. Weather forecasts call for mild temperatures, light southeast winds, and cloudy skies.
In CFL betting at Betway, the Lions are -140 moneyline favourites, while the Elks at +120 underdogs. B.C. is favoured by 2.5 points on the spread (+100), with Edmonton getting 2.5 points (-120). The total is set at 57.5 points, with both the Over and Under priced at -110.
Edmonton +2.5 is an interesting betting option, particularly since they have home-field advantage. However, you are paying a premium for that, risking $120 to win $100.
Can that Edmonton defence limit Lions quarterback Nathan Rourke and prevent B.C. from turning the game into a shootout? The weather is not going to be a factor, as it can be this time of year in Edmonton. The market expects a tight game, decided by a late field goal.
My pick is Edmonton +2.5. The Elk led the CFL in fewest points allowed and have one of the league’s top pass defences. And they compiled an 8-1 record at Commonwealth Stadium during the regular season.
The Lions are explosive under Rourke, but taking points with the Western Conference’s top seed is something I am not going to pass up on.
I am also leaning the Under 57.5, at -110. Both defences are strong against the run, albeit the winds won’t be a factor, so the passing game won’t be impacted that much. Still, playoff games are typically tighter, and that total still leaves room for a back-and-forth, competitive game.
On the player prop side, go Under 66.5 total rushing yards on the Elks’ Justin Rankin. Yes, he finished the regular season with 1,170 yards, finishing second in the league behind Winnipeg’s Brady Oliveira, but he averaged 68.8 per game.
B.C. ranked No. 1 in the CFL against the run, allowing just 71.3 rushing yards per game. And they had Rankin’s number. Rankin rushed for 19 yards in their first meeting and just 9 in the second.
That’s another reason why I like the Under 57.5. If B.C. contains Rankin again, the Elks will face more second-and-long situations and more field-goal attempts. The B.C. run defence is a big factor here.
Edmonton quarterback Cody Fajardo hasn’t played since Oct. 16, when the Elks beat the Blue Bombers 35-27. He rested the Elks’ final regular-season game against Saskatchewan; the Edmonton had the bye week. That’s a long time off. Wondering if rust will be a factor.
And according to Covers, seven of the last 10 meetings between these two teams finished Under the posted total. So there’s that.
I’m looking at those three on my end.
If you want some variety, consider a small play on the Elks moneyline at plus money. The rest advantage is a real factor.
The big concern there is Rourke, who has been money during the Lions’ second-half resurgence. Still, lock in Rourke Over 325.5 passing yards at Betway (-115), again, factoring in Edmonton’s pass defence.
Rourke threw for 366 last week against Saskatchewan in the controlled conditions at B.C. Place. He averaged just under 340 passing yards in his final nine full regular-season starts.
