Our NFL Week 9 TD scorer picks spotlight Sunday’s best bets, featuring expert analysis, key trends and top TD picks across the slate
Lots of breaking news this morning that will impact touchdown betting as we head into a full slate of games tomorrow, topped off by the Buffalo Bills-Minnesota Vikings Monday nighter.
The Indianapolis Colts are in trade talks to offload running back Jonathan Taylor and quarterback Daniel Jones, according to ESPN.
Colts WR Josh Downs has asked to be traded, ESPN reports. WR Brandon Aiyuk is trying to work his way back with the San Francisco 49ers, or another team if the 49ers trade him. The Tennessee Titans are listening on WR Calvin Ridley, and ESPN reported this morning that the Baltimore Ravens are not interested in traded running back Derrick Henry, despite chatter around that this past week.
Anyway, trade rumours add another layer of intrigue for sports bettors. How did all the chatter impact Henry’s frame of mind going into that blowout loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars on Thursday night? Henry finished with 57 yards on 17 carries; the fourth weekend in a row Henry went below 60 yards (all losses, by the way).
It’s about how potential roster moves, injuries and evolving offensive roles could influence scoring opportunities, especially for running backs and wide receivers. For bettors, Tuesday’s trade deadline can’t come soon enough. Just get it over with and off people’s minds. This is the roster for the remainder of the season, and people can bet accordingly.
Bettors have a growing body of evidence to evaluate, from red-zone usage and snap counts to defensive weaknesses to offensive tendencies. Look at QB Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills in the redzone – nine rushing touchdowns, second in the NFL, after D’Andre Swift of the Bears, who has ten.
Rumours alone don’t change touchdown probabilities, obviously; actual changes in playing time, goal-line usage, and offensive personnel do. Here are my NFL Week 9 TD scorer picks.
Best NFL Week 9 Running Back TD Props
Josh Jacobs, Green Bay Packers, anytime touchdown (-115)
The Packers face the Patriots in New England for a big 4:25 p.m. game, with Jacobs a major scoring option for Green Bay, eight rushing touchdowns on the board so far this season. At -115, the price offers an appealing opportunity for bettors looking to capitalize on his red-zone usage.
Kyren Williams, Los Angeles Rams, anytime touchdown (-140)
Williams has six rushing touchdowns and one receiving touchdown this season. In NFL betting at Betway, I like his chances to score on a goal-line carry or through the passing game against the Washington Commanders.
Best NFL Week 9 Wide Receiver TD Props
Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Seattle Seahawks, anytime touchdown (-120)
Smith-Njigba is a stud, with nine receiving touchdowns this season, and the Seahawks face Arizona at home.
Still, quarterback Sam Darnold is out, with quadriceps and rib injuries. According to reports, Drew Lock will start at QB despite an elbow issue.
In Week 2, Lock started for Seattle against Arizona when Darnold was hurt and led Seattle to a 31-7 victory. Lock threw three touchdowns that game.
CeeDee Lamb, Dallas Cowboys, anytime touchdown (-115)
The Cowboys, as ridiculous as they are, are still in the race in the NFC East, at 3-5, and take on the 2-6 Colts in Indianapolis tomorrow.
Lamb has six receiving touchdowns through eight games, including two against the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 7.
Lamb accounted for 34.9% of Dallas’ red-zone pass attempts, drawing 15 targets inside the 20-yard line. Indianapolis has surrendered 14 passing touchdowns through eight games, averaging 1.8 per game.
Best NFL Week 9 Quarterbacks TD Props
Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills, anytime TD (-115)
Sorry to be boring, but Allen is my favourite quarterback selection, again. His projected touchdown probability is strong for Monday night’s game.
Buffalo can use Allen on designed quarterback runs, short-yard sneaks and scrambles. Allen functions like a power running back, and his nine rushing touchdowns are an incredible number.
The downside to this pick: Minnesota has an elite defence, allowing 271.6 yards overall, second overall to the Seahawks, and is around the middle of the NFL in rushing yards allowed, at 116.7 per game.
If you want to spice things up a little, in NFL betting picks, Betway has Allen at +400 for First Touchdown.
Drake Maye, New England Patriots, anytime TD (+325)
I’m going to go with a higher-odds alternative to the more sure-fire Allen pick, and Maye fits the bill here at +325. His mobility gives New England another weapon near the goal line, and projections have him with more than six rushing attempts.
He’s more than capable of creating his own scoring opportunities, in a must-win game for the Patriots if they wish to keep pace with the Bills.
