Our Colts vs Chiefs betting picks for NFL Week 2 2026 include odds analysis, best bets, key matchups and picks for your same game parlay
Was Kansas City’s 31-10 romp over the Denver Broncos Monday night the real deal, or an anomaly, considering they are led by a star quarterback still making his way back from major knee surgery?
The Chiefs are fascinating for many reasons. Patrick Mahomes returned just nine months after surgery in last week’s win, but he was only 15-of-27 for 184 yards. How quickly he returns to peak Mahomes is the biggest Chiefs storyline.
The offence is changing, starting with the Chiefs making Kenneth Walker III their marquee offseason acquisition. His debut last week was spectacular – 173 rushing yards and two TDs.
Plus, TE Travis Kelce is 36, and the AFC West has caught up. Those Broncos ended Kansas City’s nine-year division title streak last season. Was last year’s 6-11 collapse a one-season anomaly? Remember, they ran up the bulk of those losses when Mahomes was still in the lineup.
Tonight is the latest chapter: the Chiefs take on the Indianapolis Colts at 8:20 p.m. EST at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City.
Here are my Colts vs Chiefs picks for tonight.
Colts vs Chiefs Odds
In NFL betting at Betway, Kansas City is a heavy -275 moneyline favourite, with Indianapolis at +225. The Chiefs are 5.5-point favourites (-110), while the Colts are +5.5 (-110). The total is 46.5, with the over at -105, and the under -115.
The market sees Kansas City as a clear favourite, but the 5.5-point spread is more interesting than the -275 moneyline. Bettors backing the Chiefs are being asked to lay nearly a touchdown, while Indianapolis gets a meaningful cushion.
On the injury front, the Chiefs are missing OT Josh Simmons (back) and DB Chamarri Conner (knee), with DT Chris Jones (calf) and CB Mansoor Delane (shoulder) listed as questionable.
On the Colts side, WR Ashton Dulin (ankle) is out, and RB D.J. Giddens (knee) is listed as questionable. Giddens fully participated in practice Friday.
Colts vs Chiefs Betting Trends
Here are a few betting trends with these two teams that bettors need to know. A big one is the under. Chiefs games finished 4-13 over/under in 2025, meaning the under cashed in 13 of 17 games. Kansas City averaged only 21.3 points but allowed just 19.3 points per game. That’s relevant if you’re looking at that 46.5 total for tonight.
The Chiefs were 4-9-1 ATS as a favourite in 2025, while the Colts were 4-3-1 ATS as an underdog, including the Colts pushing against the spread at Kansas City in a 23-20 OT loss in November.
Colts vs Chiefs Betting Picks
Looking at my NFL picks for tonight, I like the Chiefs at -5.5, since they should control possession with Walker and keep Colts quarterback Daniel Jones in obvious passing situations. While Betway has Kansas City as a 5.5-point favourite, the broader market is generally higher, with the Chiefs around -6 to -6.5 and -7 available at some sportsbooks.
The case is mainly matchup-driven. Kansas City just beat Denver 31-10, and Walker III rushed for 173 yards. Baltimore then showed a potential weakness in Indianapolis’ run defence, using outside-zone concepts to stretch the defence and create running lanes for 112 yards and three touchdowns; that gives Andy Reid an obvious area to attack with Walker.
I’m also taking Walker over 79.5 yards (-115), since the Colts gave up 5.5 yards per carry last week, and Walker is clearly a major focus for Reid as Mahomes regains his strength. Walker averaged 7.5 yards on 23 carries Monday night. I think he’s good for at least 20 carries tonight.
Finally, I’m leaning toward under 46.5. Both teams will run, with Jonathan Taylor on the Indianapolis side, and that will keep the clock moving. A shorter week for the Chiefs points to a grind-it-out game.
Colts vs Chiefs Same Game Parlay Picks
As you can see, I’m leaning pretty big on the Chiefs (still bruised after Monday night’s game, when I went the other way with the Broncos). I’ll go Chiefs -5.5, Walker 79.5+ rushing yards, and Walker anytime TD (+170 SGP at Betway).
