Our NFL Week 7 picks against the spread highlight the best Sunday NFL bets, featuring expert analysis, key trends and top ATS selections
Feeling good this morning after watching the Chicago Bears take out the New England Patriots in that Thursday nighter, 30-24.
No. 1, I’m a Buffalo Bills fan, so seeing the Patriots, second in the standings behind the Bills in the AFC East, lose to the Bears warmed my heart, since the Bills-Patriots will slug it out to the end of the season. The Bills are on a bye week. Any edge there for the Bills is welcome.
And if Bills players could refrain from spitting on their opponents, that would be nice. Thank you for your attention to this matter.
And two, from a betting angle: I didn’t take the Bears +3.5 on the road, which would have hit, but I did take the Over 50.5, Drake Maye 2+ passing TDs, and D’Andre Swift anytime touchdown, so a 3-for-3 is always a nice way to start a day.
In Week 7, the Cincinnati Bengals (3-2) and Baltimore Ravens (4-2) promise to be a great AFC North showdown. The NFL also has a great showdown as well between the surging Green Bay Packers and the Detroit Lions.
The Kansas City Chiefs (5-0) meet the Seattle Seahawks (3-3), and Kenneth Walker III can take on his former team. Crank up the player prop engine for that game. The Pittsburgh Steelers (4-2) and the New Orleans Saints (2-4) meet in Paris, with a city burning to the ground in the background, if you believe what you see in the media and what your social media algorithms tell you. J.J. McCarthy starts for the New York Giants (3-2-1) against the Houston Texans (2-4), led by a surging C.J. Stroud at quarterback.
This week, with my against-the-spread picks, I’m focusing on the games getting the most attention, not necessarily the best ATS picks overall.
NFL Week 7 Betting Trends
In NFL betting picks, I am having trouble digesting Seattle -2.5 and -145 favourites on the moneyline, up against a 5-0 Chiefs team. According to Yahoo Sports, the Chiefs are 12-3-1 ATS with Mahomes starting as an underdog, including playoff games. The Seahawks are 1-4-1 ATS this season.
According to Covers, Tennessee is 0-12 straight up and ATS in its last 12 games following a win. They beat the Colts last weekend. This week the Titans take on the Browns, who are 4-2 ATS this season.
And in Detroit, the Lions have failed to cover in four of their last five meetings with the Packers, Yahoo Sports reports. The Packers have covered three straight games.
And God help me if I take the Cowboys again, but the reality is the Eagles are 1-5 ATS this season, including 0-3 ATS at home, and home is where they play Dallas Monday night. Jalen Hurts is out, and the Cowboys have drifted from opening underdog to 3.5-point road favourite. I’m going to sleep on that one for a few days.
NFL Week 7 Picks Against the Spread
Green Bay Packers (+3.5) vs Detroit Lions
In NFL betting, I’m getting more than a field goal in a divisional matchup, and I like that much better than Packers +3.
Green Bay has won and covered three straight games after starting the season 1-2, and a lot of people have been griping about it. The Pack have allowed just 11.3 points per game during the stretch.
Plus, coming off a bye week, Detroit’s defence is still vulnerable, allowing 5.6 yards per play, according to Covers. The Pack are 4-1 ATS in their last five games against the Lions.
The Lions are 2-3 ATS this season, while the Packers are 3-3.
My pick: Packers +3.5 (-110)
Kansas City Chiefs (+2.5) vs Seattle Seahawks
So an undefeated Chiefs team, with championship pedigree and QB Patrick Mahomes now fully in the league MVP conversation, is at plus value? Sign me up.
According to Yahoo, the Chiefs are 12-4 straight up and 12-3-1 ATS when Mahomes starts as an underdog, including playoffs. Plus, you’re getting 2.5 points.
Kenneth Walker III leads the NFL in rushing with 665 yards, giving the lethal Mahomes an outstanding complementary rushing attack.
Yes, Seattle’s defence is formidable (they’ve gone 35 consecutive games without allowing any individual player to rush for 100 yards), but I’m also looking at Seahawks quarterback Sam Darnold and his seven interceptions this season, compared with Mahomes’ three.
My pick: Chiefs +2.5 (+100)
Baltimore Ravens (-1.5) vs Cincinnati Bengals
At 1.5, you’re getting a much more manageable spread. Ravens QB Lamar Jackson returned to practice this week but his status for Sunday is unclear.
Still, the Ravens, with Derrick Henry (534 yards on 130 carries, seven touchdowns and a 4.1-yard average), have the stronger rushing matchup. The Bengals rank 28th in rushing yards per game (82.8). The Ravens give up only 100.5 rushing yards per game, while the Bengals rank 23rd there (123.0).
Former Bengal Trey Hendrickson at linebacker returned against Cleveland last weekend and had eight pressures and a sack, and is a big weapon against Joe Burrow.
My pick: Ravens -1.5 (-110)
