Our NFL Week 6 player prop picks spotlight Sunday’s best bets, featuring expert analysis, key trends and top TD picks across the slate
Injuries are the storyline this morning as bettors look for alternatives to traditional point spreads and game totals, focusing on running back rushing totals, quarterback passing yards, anytime touchdown markets, and receiver production.
The Philadelphia Eagles placed quarterback Jalen Hurts on IR with those blood clot issues in his leg. The Chicago Bears, looking to bounce back from last weekend’s big loss to the Green Bay Packers, are starting QB Caleb Williams today as he returns from a hamstring injury.
The New England Patriots have activated wide receiver AJ Brown for today’s game against the New York Jets. ESPN reports that New Orleans Saints quarterback Tyler Shough has been playing with two broken bones in his non-throwing hands.
Lots of things to chew over as you settle in for another long Sunday of games on a cold Canadian fall morning.
Here are my NFL Week 6 player prop picks.
NFL Week 6 Player Prop Trends
Two quarterbacks are drawing attention in the passing-yardage market: Jordan Love in Green Bay with the surging Packers, up against the Dallas Cowboys, and Drake Maye with the Patriots, up against the Jets.
In NFL betting, look to established red-zone options, projected carries and target percentages, and usage percentages within 20 yards, guys like Jonathan Taylor of the Indianapolis Colts, James Cook of the Buffalo Bills, Bijan Robinson of the Atlanta Falcons, Ashton Jeanty of the Las Vegas Raiders and Kyren Williams of the L.A. Rams.
Player prop receiving yards have been rising for guys like Christian Watson, Brock Bowers, CeeDee Lamb and Nico Collins.
Best NFL Week 6 Running Back Props
Derrick Henry, Baltimore Ravens, 90+ rushing yards (-115)
With Lamar Jackson out with an injury and Tyler Huntley starting in his place, the Ravens have leaned on the run, and Henry is handling a heavy workload, with high-20s carries in recent games. He’s exceeded 100 yards twice.
Plus, the Cleveland Browns, their opponent today, are vulnerable against the run, and their defensive line is dealing with injuries.
Bijan Robinson, Atlanta Falcons, 90+ rushing yards (-125)
Nice balance of risk versus potential return, given his opponent and his workload so far this season.
The Bears’ defence is depleted, with a dent in their front seven – DE Dayo Odeyingbo, LB T.J. Edwards, and DE Montez Sweat are all out. That’s going to open running lanes for Robinson.
Best NFL Week 6 Wide Receiver Props
Drake London, Atlanta Falcons, 90+ receiving yards (+140)
With the Falcons facing a depleted Bears defence, London is a focal point of Atlanta’s passing attack, so 90+ is realistic. At Betway, 100+ at +120 is tempting, but I’ll lay off and go the more conservative route.
CeeDee Lamb, Dallas Cowboys, 90+ receiving yards (+120)
For my NFL betting picks, Betway is offering Lamb 80+ receiving yards at -120, but I’ll take the plus money, since Lamb has averaged more than 100 receiving yards per game over his last five. He remains Dak Prescott’s primary receiving target and should command a big share of Dallas’ targets in what should be a bounce back game today against the Packers.
At Betway, the 80+ option at -120 offers a reasonable balance of risk and reward. The 90+ alternative at +120 offers better upside but requires another 10 yards. That’s where I am going.
Best NFL Week 6 Quarterback Props
Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers, 275+ passing yards (-110)
With the Over set at 53.5, I expect a pass-heavy game. That means a big game from Love, who threw for a whopping 367 yards against the Bears last week. His passing-yardage line has been climbing, raising expectations.
Drake Maye, New England Patriots, 225+ passing yards (-150)
New England is done talking about how and why Maye has stumbled after a slow start to the season. Maye is back in the MVP conversation in a big way, and the Patriots’ play of late has the first-place Bills seriously looking over their shoulder.
He threw for 374 yards last week in blowing away the Raiders, and his mobility adds another dimension to the New England offence, although that has nothing to do with this prop.
Betway is offering 250+ yards at +125, and that’s tempting given his recent production, but the Jets have a tougher defence, ranking fourth in the NFL in total defence. So, as usual, I take the conservative road.
Plus, don’t forget, Brown is back, giving Maye another major weapon.
