Our NFL Week 6 TD scorer picks spotlight Sunday’s best bets, featuring expert analysis, key trends and top TD picks across the slate
NFL Week 6 kicks off Sunday with 12 games, starting with another early London tilt, this one at Wembley Stadium, between the Houston Texans and the Jacksonville Jaguars (game time is 9:30 a.m. EST).
The Jaguars’ European vacation extends back a few weeks, since they played the Eagles at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium last weekend.
Injuries are piling up across the NFL, with big betting implications.
Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson is out with an ankle injury. Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts is out with blood clots in his leg. Eagles running back Saquon Barkley (hamstring) is out too. That’s the most damaging offensive injury combination in Week 6.
Chicago Bears quarterback Caleb Williams is still out with a hamstring injury, though he’s now questionable for tomorrow. Keep an eye on the wires for that one.
QB Baker Mayfield is still out for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers with that thumb issue. Texans’ running back David Montgomery is out with a groin issue, meaning more work for Woody Marks. Buffalo Bills wide receiver DJ Moore is questionable with that shoulder injury. Hopefully the Bills keep him out of the lineup so that injury can finally, fully heal.
New Orleans Saints running back Alvin Kamara is questionable with a back injury. Saints wide receiver Chris Olave is also questionable with an illness.
Those are some of the major ones. Then look at some of the beneficiaries: for example, Marks with the Texans, goal-line carries with Montgomery out, and the Eagles’ Dameon Pierce with both Barkley and Will Shipley out. Eagles TE Dallas Goedert could also get more short-area targets, given those injuries. Ravens QB Tyler Huntley scored on a one-yard run last week filling in for Jackson.
Here are my NFL Week 6 TD scorer picks.
Best NFL Week 6 Running Back TD Props
James Cook, Buffalo Bills, anytime touchdown (-150)
In NFL betting, I am looking for a big game from Cook this week, who will want to make a statement after fumbling twice in Monday night’s game against the L.A. Rams. He has 95 carries, 532 yards, and five scores through five games. The Raiders give up the most yards before contact to running backs in the league – 2.59 yards before contact per rush allowed, according to Athlon.
Kyren Williams, Los Angeles Rams, anytime touchdown (-190)
The Rams are massive favourites against the Arizona Cardinals Sunday, at 2-3 now, still stinging from the loss to the Bills. Yes, that price is high, but he has accounted for 41.2% of the Rams’ red-zone opportunities, with 17 carries and four receptions inside the 20-yard line, according to PFF. He has five TDs in five games.
Parlay Williams, if you think that price is too expensive.
Best NFL Week 6 Receiver TD Props
Isaiah Likely, New York Giants, anytime touchdown (+155)
Likely has four touchdowns in five games, with seven red-zone targets, according to Fox Sports, especially relevant for anytime touchdown betting.
Last week against the Commanders, he caught 11 of 13 targets for 94 yards and two TDs.
According to the New York Giants site, the Saints are vulnerable against tight ends. They’ve allowed 36 receptions to tight ends, tied for third most in the NFL.
Christian Watson, Green Bay Packers, anytime touchdown (+115)
Watson has six receiving touchdowns in five games, including two against the Bears last week. He’s scored in four of Green Bay’s five games.
The Packers are coming on a bit – winners of three of their last four games, improving to 3-2, including that 31-7 demolition of the Bears last weekend, and Watson is a key cog in their offence.
Dallas has surrendered 10 passing touchdowns through five games, an average of two per game. I like this prop a lot.
Best NFL Week 6 Quarterbacks TD Props
Drake Maye, New England Patriots, anytime TD (+275)
The Patriots are surging, and Maye has rushed for 161 yards and one touchdown through five games. Stokastic estimates his touchdown probability at 34.4%.
Unlike a traditional pocket passer like Kirk Cousins in Las Vegas, Maye can keep the ball on a read option or scramble when coverage breaks down.
Maye is intriguing at +275, against the Jets, at home.
Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills, anytime TD (-160)
I know what you’re saying – really, Allen, again? But how can you argue with eight rushing touchdowns in five games? Allen rushed for 121 yards against the Rams Monday night, and the Raiders have a vulnerable run defence. That tush-push is money on the goal line.
Best Anytime Touchdown Prop for Sunday
In my view, the best overall Week 6 anytime touchdown prop bet is Williams. Covers Anytime TD Value Index ranks him tied for No. 1 with Cook, at an 81 index score. The Rams are double-digit favourites over the Cardinals.
