Our NFL Week 6 picks against the spread highlight the best Sunday NFL bets, featuring expert analysis, key trends and top ATS selections
Two out of three ain’t bad, right? I hit the Under 40.5 and Seahawks receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba 100+ yards at +105 in the 17-14 Denver Broncos win over the Seattle Seahawks last night, but I also had the Seahawks (now 3-3) at -2.5, which I thought had the clearer edge.
Broncos quarterback Bo Nix has been average all season, but how was I to know Seahawks QB Sam Darnold would be so bad? That’s seven interceptions now for him over four games. That’s going to get them nowhere in a tough NFC West.
Here are my NFL Week 6 picks against the spread.
NFL Week 6 Betting Landscape
It’s getting harder for bettors to pick the most likely winner versus identifying an underdog whose chances are being underestimated.
Big favourites deserve scrutiny, while divisional games can be tighter than their records suggest.
Speaking of big favourites, there are lots of those going into the weekend’s games, according to NFL betting at Betway: L.A. Rams are -12.5 favourites against the Arizona Cardinals, the Kansas Chiefs are 7.5-point favourites against the L.A. Chargers, and the San Francisco 49ers are 7.5-point favourites over the Washington Commanders.
NFL Week 6 Betting Trends
Underdogs have been outperforming the spread, according to Yahoo – 42-34-3, through Week 5. Large favourites (laying 6+) have been particularly unprofitable, though, despite winning most of their games outright, according to their analysis.
NFL Week 6 Picks Against the Spread
Vegas Raiders (+4.5) vs Buffalo Bills
In my NFL betting picks, I lean the Raiders here, given that they’ve covered three of four games as an underdog.
The Raiders getting more than a field goal at home is worth examining, given the Bills’ bad defence, ranked 30th in the NFL. Teams can score on them.
Buffalo is also 4-1 ATS. The Bills have a short week after their overtime win Monday night against the Rams. Teams on a short week off an OT game – 40% ATS since 2000, according to ESPN.
ED Oliver and DJ Moore missed today’s practice for the Bills, while RB Ty Johnson, WR Joshua Palmer, DT T.J. Sanders, CB Dee Alford, and CB Te’Cory Couch are all questionable. Raiders star tight end Brock Bowers (knee) fully participated in practice.
Raiders RB Ashton Jeanty said he is feeling great this week, despite reports that an ankle injury has hampered him.
My pick: Vegas +4.5 (-110)
Carolina Panthers (-3.5) vs Philadelphia Eagles
Troubling times in Philly (2-3), with a lot of yelling about head coach Nick Siriano, and now quarterback Jalen Hurts has been ruled out with blood clots in his leg, leaving Tanner McKee to start. Carolina comes off a bye week, and the Eagles have struggled to cover spreads.
Running back Saquon Barkley is questionable, dealing with a hamstring injury, and according to ESPN wasn’t at practice today.
My pick: Carolina -3.5 (+100)
Houston Texans (+2.5) vs Jacksonville Jaguars
Houston had a big 26-3 win last week against the Tennessee Titans, so the offence has momentum heading into the Jaguars game at Wembley Stadium in London, England.
Jacksonville struggled in the red zone against the Eagles last week. According to CBS Sports, Houston has a strong recent record in divisional road games, 11-4-1 ATS over the previous 16.
Houston knows Jacksonville well as a divisional rival and has the personnel on defence to pressure Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence and limit explosive plays. It feels like a one-possession game, with the Texans having a good chance to win outright.
My pick: Houston Texans +2.5 (-105)
Sunday NFL Week 6 Parlay Picks
Here’s what I like: Panthers -3.5 ATS plus Under 43.5 total points for +200 at Betway, since Hurts is out and the Eagles’ offence has struggled. That Under 43.5 gives you additional protection.
