Blue Jays and Orioles wrap up their weekend series today as Kevin Gausman faces his former club in a game loaded with betting angles
The Rogers Centre roof top will be off for this afternoon’s Toronto Blue Jays MLB game against the Baltimore Orioles, something that will make Blue Jays’ starting pitcher Kevin Gausman happy, since he’s been calling for more open-air games.
The Jays are coming off a 6-4 win yesterday, led by second baseman Ernie Clement, 2-for-4 at the plate, 3 RBIs, including a home run.
That win pushed the Jays to 31-34 (18-14 at home), tied with the Orioles now (the O’s also are 31-34, 12-19 away) for third in the American League East, just a half game out of an American League wildcard spot in what’s been a bizarre season so far.
The Chicago White Sox, 34-30, hold one of those wildcard spots, while early season betting favourites like the Jays, Detroit Tigers, Texas Rangers, Minnesota Twins and Houston Astros have sputtered and dropped back.
Yes, the Jays have been knee-capped by injuries, but they’ve also been handicapped by under-performances by players like George Springer and Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Guererro Jr. is hitting .292, but he has three home runs to his name, just 11 doubles. No triples, after 63 games. That’s not going to cut it for a guy making $500 million over 14 years.
On the injury front, the news is better. RHP Max Scherzer “checked a lot of boxes” in his latest rehab stint with the Buffalo Bisons, according to Sportsnet. RHP Shane Bieber, with a rehab outing yesterday in Buffalo, is ramping up his pitch count, and RHP Dylan Cease is also close to returning to the lineup, very possibly this upcoming week, at least for Scherzer and Cease.
Alejandro Kirk is building back up in low-A Dunedin as he recovers from a fractured thumb and could be back on the MLB team in mid-June.
Relief pitcher Yimi Garcia is pitching rehab outings in Single-A Dunedin. Addison Barger continues to hit and throw and work through his right elbow inflammation issues at the Blue Jays’ Florida complex and is also down for a possible return in mid-June.
BEST BETS
Baltimore Orioles at Toronto Blue Jays, today, 1:37 p.m. EST, Rogers Centre, Toronto
Kevin Gausman (4-4, 3.36 ERA) versus Shane Baz (3-5, 4.29 ERA)
In MLB betting at Betway, the Blue Jays are betting favorites at -135, the Orioles are +115. Toronto is -1.5 (+135), with Baltimore at +1.5 (-180). The total is 8.5 (Over +105, Under -125).
Blue Jays to Win (-135)
Gausman has pitched a lot better than his record shows, and he’s facing an Orioles team that is 19th in road run creation. The difference is when the game gets to the bullpens. Baltimore is 23rd in the league in bullpen ERA, at 4.64, with the Blue Jays 14th, at 4.02.
Toronto has won two of their last three against Baltimore. Should be a lot of positive energy at the dome downtown today, since there’s a sense that all is not lost in what has been a down season so far, that the Blue Jays are within striking distance of a wildcard, and the team is about to be overwhelmed by guys returning from IL stints.
Kevin Gausman Over 6 Strikeouts (-190)
Even 8+ is worth a stab (+220), with Gausman at 74 strikeouts on the season, tied for 23rd in MLB. Weather conditions are pristine, and the Orioles strike out a lot (25th in MLB, at 583 Ks).
Ernie Clement 1+ Total Bases Hits Only (-275)
Big game yesterday for Clement, with a homer, triple and three RBIs. He’s seeing the ball very well right now.
And Guerrero Jr. is +450 to hit a homerun. I am going to toss some coins at this one, because he’s going to bust out some time. Baz is close to the league average when it comes to giving up homers.
