The Jays pull into Fenway Park tonight, losers of two in a row. The good news is they have fireballer Dylan Cease on the mound
It’s tough not to get excited about June baseball at Fenway Park, with the weather conditions in Boston for this evening projected to be sunny and in the 70s F.
However, the matchup leaves a little to be desired. The Toronto Blue Jays make their first visit to Boston, entrenched in mediocrity, at 34-38, third in the American League East, losers of two in a row after a disappointing weekend series against the New York Yankees.
The Red Sox are far worse – 29-40, last in the AL East.
Jays’ second baseman Ernie Clement was on TSN’s Overdrive in Toronto yesterday talking about how there’s a lot of baseball still to be played, and there is. Clement focused on the wildcard race, with the Blue Jays two games out, in a season of disappointment so far on the American League idea.
However, the Jays are 72 games in. When is this turnaround supposed to start?
The top six teams in the National League wildcard race are all .500 and higher. In the American League it’s just the top three teams.
BEST BETS
Toronto Blue Jays (13-20 on the road) at Boston Red Sox (12-22 at home), tonight, 6:45 p.m. EST, Fenway Park, Boston
Dylan Cease (3-3, 2.91 ERA) versus Payton Tolle (3-3, 2.70 ERA)
In MLB betting at Betway this morning, the Blue Jays are -120 moneyline favorites, with the Red Sox at +100. Toronto is -1.5 on the run line at +135, while Boston is +1.5 (-180). The total is set at 7.5 runs, with the Over priced at -105 and the Under at -115.
Dylan Cease 7+ Strikeouts (-165)
The Jays start a three-game at Fenway tonight.
Ernie Clement has a .304 batting average to lead the Jays and is in the All-Star Game conversation. Over the past 10 games, Kazuma Okamoto is 12 for 38, with two home runs and seven RBIs.
On the Boston side, Willson Contreras leads the Red Sox with 16 home runs, slugging .570. Ceddane Rafaela is the hottest hitter over the past ten games – 13-for-41, two home runs, nine RBIs.
But tonight it all starts with pitching. Cease is an absolute fireballer, with 103 strikeouts, third in Major League League baseball, in a season where he missed a week with a hamstring strain.
The Red Sox don’t strike out as much (ninth in MLB with 569), so that’s why I am holding back a little. Cease to throw 9+ SOs is plus money, at +225.
Under 7.5 (-115)
That’s low, by MLB standards, but I’m going to stick with the Under this game out, with good weather forecast for tonight, and a quality starter on the Boston side as well, all pointing to a lower scoring game.
The Jays struggle to build rallies, so if Tolle limits walks and stays ahead in counts this one has a good shot to hit the Under. Tolle can make this game uncomfortable for Toronto hitters. The Jays are ninth in MLB in team batting average, at .250, but they don’t hit home runs, 23rd in the league with 69.
If the Tolle gives the Red Sox five or six innings, that Under looks even better, because the Blue Jays will likely beat down those Boston middle relievers.
Blue Jays -1.5 Runline (+135)
That’s a solid return for a team that has the superior pitcher going tonight. I was looking for plus money this morning, rather than lay down a heavier price on alternate markets, like Jays +2.5 (-450).
Still, I like the Blue Jays, after a day’s rest, to get back into the win column tonight. No word on Vladimir Guerrero Jr. yet, who listed as day-to-day with a back issue, as is Andres Gimenez, day-to-day with a wrist injury. No Daulton Varsho – on the 10-day IL with a wrist injury.
