Our Falcons vs Packers betting picks for NFL Week 3 2026 include odds analysis, best bets, key matchups and picks for your same game parlay
Quarterback injuries have dominated the NFL storyline through three weeks, and they’re once again influencing the betting picture for tonight’s Atlanta Falcons-Green Bay Packers matchup.
The big news today is the return of quarterback Michael Penix Jr. to the Falcons (0-2) lineup, at a time when their lifeless offence needs a jolt.
So far this season, the Giants’ Jaxson Dart suffered a season-ending knee injury, Chicago’s Caleb Williams suffered a hamstring injury that saw him carted off the field last weekend, and the Commanders’ Jayden Daniels suffered a grotesque elbow dislocation that will likely keep him out for months.
Penix Jr. starts tonight, returning from an ACL injury that ended his 2025 season. Tua Tagovailoa has also had injury issues, but is slotted in as Penix Jr.’s backup.
The game is tonight at Lambeau Field in Green Bay, with an 8:15 p.m. EST kickoff time. Cloudy skies and a temperature of 15 degrees Celsius are forecast for kickoff.
On the injury front, DE Samson Ebukam (hamstring), CB A.J. Terrell Jr. (groin), DT Da’Shawn Hand (quadriceps), and OL Cameron Williams (ankle) are all out for Atlanta, with CB Billy Bowman Jr. (Achilles) questionable, for the Falcons.
For Green Bay (1-1), G Aaron Banks (toe), DT Warren Brinson (calf), WR Jayden Reed (neck) and OT Zach Bako-Bewele (knee) are all out, with DT Javon Hargrave (concussion) questionable.
Packers’ All-Pro edge rusher Micah Parsons is still recovering from a torn ACL.
The key matchup is Falcons running back Bijan Robinson against the Packers’ run defence. Robinson is an All-Pro and has rushed for 155 yards on 37 carries over Atlanta’s first two games, while Green Bay has allowed just 2.85 yards per carry. Only the L.A. Chargers have given fewer yards per rush.
Falcons vs Packers Odds
In NFL betting at Betway, the Packers are -250 moneyline favourites, with the Falcons at +200. Green Bay is also favoured by 4.5 points at home (-115), while Atlanta +4.5 (-105). The total is set at 42.5, with the over at -115 and the under at -105.
Falcons vs Packers Betting Trends
The Falcons were better ATS on the road compared to at home last season – 5-3-1 in 2025, versus 3-5 ATS at home. So, much better as a road underdog.
The Packers went 3-4-1 ATS at home in 2025, despite a 5-3 home record.
So far this season, both teams are 0-2 ATS.
On the Over/Under front, Atlanta’s road games went 4-5 O/U in 2025, meaning the under hit five times in nine games. The under was even more of a factor for Green Bay at home – Packers home games went 3-5 O/U, with the under hitting in five of eight.
Green Bay has won 13 consecutive home openers. Does that make Packers -4.5 more attractive then?
Falcons vs Packers Betting Picks
In my NFL picks, I like the Packers -4.5, for a lot of reasons – Penix Jr.’s first game back after a long time off due to ACL surgery, and the fact Atlanta has scored only 16 points this season.
Green Bay’s defence, along with giving up 2.85 yards per carry on the rushing front, has seven sacks in two games. Plus, Falcons CB Terrell Jr. is out, which helps Packers quarterback Jordan Love.
I am also putting a lot of stock in the home field for a team that hasn’t overly impressed its hardcore fans since the season started. They’ll make a statement tonight.
I like Drake London Over 68.5 receiving yards at -125 – he’s the clear go-to guy for Penix Jr.
Robinson Over 78.5 yards is -115 at Betway – Atlanta will want to lean on its No. 1 running back rather than ask Penix Jr. to throw 35+ times and scramble in his first game back from major knee surgery.
If you’re looking for some plus money in the player prop market, consider Christian Watson anytime touchdown, at +150. Watson, as a major part of the passing attack, has 10 catches for 188 yards and three TDs through two games.
I’m also looking for a big game for Love – go 225+ passing yards (-115). Love has already blown past that number – 387 yards in Week 1, with 187 last week against the Jets in lousy weather. Tonight’s weather forecast is great.
More of the offence for Green Bay is Love’s shoulders with Josh Jacobs out of the lineup (NFL Commissioner’s Exempt List).
Falcons vs Packers Same Game Parlay Picks
Same Game Parlay options are becoming more popular with bettors.
Want to show some love for the Packers? Try Packers moneyline, Love 225+ passing yards and Watson anytime TD (+450 at Betway). Packers win because Love has a productive night, with Watson benefiting from that.
