NBA futures odds take shape as training camps near, with the Thunder and Spurs favoured and the Raptors offering sleeper value at +2800
Last night, during the Monday Night Football game between the New York Giants and Rams in Los Angeles, the camera scanned to a private box where LeBron James sat with friends, and it got me thinking – NBA training camps start in just over a week.
Houston and Dallas are heading overseas to Macao for the NBA China Games. That’s how real the new NBA season is becoming.
If you’re thinking this might be the time to make some futures bets, here are a few NBA storylines that shaped betting lines this offseason.
The Oklahoma City Thunder and San Antonio Spurs have separated themselves from everyone else in championship futures.
OKC has one of the league’s strongest young cores. The Spurs are coming off a final appearance against the New York Knicks.
Philadelphia’s massive offseason is the most enticing – led by the aforementioned James heading to Philly as a free agent, with the team also adding Jaylen Brown via trade, both of them to team up with Tyrese Maxey, Joel Embiid and VJ Edgecombe.
I would argue that with a stacked roster like that, one of the coaches on the shortest leash going into the season is Nick Nurse.
The Sixers were +6000 before the Brown trade and are currently +900 in NBA futures picks at Betway.
Victor Wembanyama has emerged as the MVP favourite, since he isn’t merely part of the Spurs’ championship argument anymore, he’s driving the bus there.
NBA Championship Odds
In NBA betting at Betway, this morning, the Thunder are +260, followed by the Spurs (+260), Knicks (+900), 76ers (+900), Boston Celtics (+1400), Denver Nuggets (+2500), Minnesota Timberwolves (+2500), Cleveland Cavaliers (+2800), Detroit Pistons (+2800), Miami Heat (+2800), then the Toronto Raptors (+2800).
Future prices will change as rosters come together, injuries happen and money enters the market.
Title Contenders
In terms of NBA championship predictions, not much is separating the Spurs and Thunder.
The Thunder went 64-18 last season, best in the league, and are led by Canadian Shai Gilgeous-Alexander; they’re also elite defensively, with Chet Holmgren, Jalen Williams, and Cason Wallace.
OKC lost some depth players this offseason, led by Lu Dort, Isaiah Joe and Aaron Wiggins.
The Spurs have the most compelling counterargument: they went 4-0 against OKC during the regular season, then eliminated OKC in seven games in the playoffs.
Wembanyama is only 22, while Stephon Castle, 21, and Dylan Harper, 20, can still make significant jumps. The Spurs added Tobias Harris without a major departure.
That +260 is a tough price to get excited about for a preseason championship future, though.
Next Level Contenders
This is where it gets interesting if I am going to place a bet a week away from the start of training camp, getting longer prices without dropping off into long-shot territory.
I get the Knicks at +900, since they are the defending champions, showing their roster construction worked in the offseason.
The 76ers have the highest variance of anyone in this tier, since they completely remade their roster.
However, it’s tough to see that roster stay healthy over the regular-season marathon. And maybe that’s the point, something Nurse will fully understand, since he coached the Raptors in 2019, when load management became a term, and the team’s strategic use of Kawhi Leonard helped lead them to an NBA championship. Embiid, though, is far more fragile than Leonard was that season, and James is likely entering his final late-career season.
Then there’s Boston at +1400. The Celtics lost Brown and added Paul George, and you’re getting the longer number there because there is understandable uncertainty over how the roster will fit together.
Next Tier
The sleeper/value hunting ground is where I am sniffing. Denver still has big value, built around an elite superstar Nikola Jokic, but the fact Betway prices them at +2500, separated from the West’s top two, is telling.
Minnesota is priced identically at +2500, bunched in with Cleveland, Detroit, Miami and Toronto.
The Wolves finally have an elite playmaking guard in LaMelo Ball to play alongside Anthony Edwards. Detroit behind Cade Cunningham went 60-22 last season, with the NBA’s No. 2 defence.
The Cavaliers behind Donovan Mitchell reached the Eastern Conference finals. And the Heat, of course, made perhaps the offseason’s biggest splash by adding Giannis Antetokounmpo to pair with Bam Adebayo.
NBA Futures Pick
I’m putting some money down on the Raptors, now that the Leonard trade went through.
Toronto wasn’t bad before Kawhi, finishing 46-36 last season, a 16-win improvement, and Leonard, at 35, is coming off an elite season with the Clippers, finishing seventh in MVP voting.
Today, the Raptors announced Leonard had signed a two-year extension, so Toronto has him for three more years.
According to NBA.com, last season, when games slowed down, the Raptors’ half-court offence struggled. Only Indiana shot less effectively in the final six seconds of the shot clock last season.
Leonard gives them the isolation scorer/closer they lacked.
Playoff basketball becomes more half-court oriented. Then there’s the defensive potential, loading up Leonard with Scottie Barnes and Collin Murray-Boyles.
They’re +2800 though because of several legitimate weaknesses – Leonard’s health (he played just 65 games last season), as well as Jakob Poeltl’s health, along with size/rebounding shortfalls. Defensive rebounding is a red flag for the Raptors.
But they’re an intriguing sleeper pick at that price.
