Cowboys vs Giants Picks & Predictions | NFL Week 1 2026

13 Sep | news | BY Mark Keast | MIN READ TIME |

Our Cowboys vs Giants betting picks for NFL Week 1 2026 include odds analysis, best bets, key matchups and picks for your same game parlay

A great game to focus on for Week 1, since it’s an age-old rivalry that goes back decades.

The Cowboys have revamped their defence for 2026, led by Christian Parker, who is coming over from the Eagles as defensive coordinator. The Cowboys are installing a more disguise-heavy, quarters-based (resembling man coverage), post-snap coverage rotation scheme meant to make it harder for the quarterback to know what coverage he is getting at the snap.

The Cowboys strengthened the front with Quinnen Williams, Kenny Clark and Rashan Gary, overhauled the secondary with Jalen Thompson, P.J. Locke, Cobie Durant and first-round safety Caleb Downs, and upgraded at linebacker.

Can a sophomore like Giants quarterback Jaxson Dart, making his first opening-game start, process information that fast, since even an extra second can give the pass rush time to get to him?

On the New York side, all eyes are on John Harbaugh, making his debut as Giants’ head coach. With Matt Nagy in there as offensive coordinator, New York is moving away from a shotgun-heavy approach to pre-snap motions, an under-centre formation, more play action, and tight-end looks.

It’s definitely Dart’s show in New York now.

An injury story to follow: WR Malik Nabers, returning from an ACL tear, is listed as questionable for tomorrow night’s game. Dart’s receiving options look much thinner without Nabers.

Other than Nabers, the Giants are healthy.

The Cowboys are without Pro Bowl left guard Tyler Smith, who underwent thumb surgery, and backup running back Malik Davis, who suffered a hip injury.

The Smith loss is noteworthy, since the Giants have a good pass rush.

Cowboys vs Giants Odds

In NFL betting at Betway, the Cowboys are -165 moneyline favourites on the road, with the Giants at +140. Dallas is a 2.5-point favourite at -130, while New York is +2.5 at +110. The total is 47.5 points, with the over priced at -115 and the under priced at -105.

When looking at Cowboys vs Giants NFL picks, the market sees Dallas as the better team but expects a competitive game. Still, being a 2.5-point favourite on the road at MetLife Stadium for tomorrow’s game (8:20 p.m. EDT start time) is meaningful.

Cowboys vs Giants Betting Trends

Dallas is 16-2 against the Giants since the start of 2017, tied for the most wins by any team against a single opponent, ESPN reports.

The Giants are 1-8 ATS in their past Week 1 games against a Dallas offence that was second in the NFL in offensive efficiency last year, with 391.9 yards per game (behind the Rams, who had 394.6).

Cowboys vs Giants Betting Picks

I have the Cowboys as a legitimate Super Bowl favourite this season, especially given their offensive statistics last year (seventh in the NFL in scoring, averaging 27.7 points per game, despite finishing 7-9).

Dak Prescott remains the centrepiece, with George Pickens having a career year with 93 catches for 1,429 yards and nine touchdowns. CeeDee Lamb is the second head of an elite receiving tandem.

I’m going to take the Cowboys moneyline at -165 – I’d rather pay -165 to win than -130 while still needing Dallas to win by three.

Dallas has the superior quarterback (Prescott threw for 4,552 yards last season), along with Pickens’ year.

I’m also taking the over 47.5 priced at -115. Dallas’ offence is well established. I think there’s a realistic path to 27-30 points.

I’m also factoring in a rebuilt Dallas defence under a new defensive coordinator. That’s a lot of change. Plus Dart is pretty mobile.

The over has hit in most recent Cowboys–Giants meetings and in a high percentage of Dallas games last year. Week 1 primetime games with new schemes often produce points once the first half settles.

Cowboys’ team total (over 25.5) is -115. Rather than needing Dallas to cover, I’m betting on Prescott, Lamb and Pickens attacking a Giants defence that’s still incorporating changes. Dallas’ official preview specifically points to Prescott’s receiving weapons as a potential way to attack the Giants’ secondary.