Golden State leads the WNBA against the spread, while Minnesota’s home dominance hasn’t translated into betting value
The WNBA playoffs start Sunday, and without getting into the minutiae, there’s still work to do to finalize seeding ahead of tonight’s final five regular-season games.
Four of the eight playoff seeds have been set. The Minnesota Lynx are the No. 1 seed. After the Atlanta Dream defeated the New York Liberty on Wednesday, that locked the Dream into the No. 4 seed, the Liberty into No. 8, and the Dallas Wings into No. 7.
Minnesota and New York will meet in Round 1 of the playoffs. The Golden State Valkyries and the Las Vegas Aces are vying for the No. 2 and No. 3 seeds. The Valkyries play the Los Angeles Sparks tonight, while the Aces visit Phoenix to play the Mercury.
If Golden State wins, they get the No. 2 seed.
However, if they lose and Las Vegas wins, both teams would finish 31-13, with the Aces getting the No. 2 seed because they own the tiebreaker thanks to their 3-0 season record over Golden State.
In basketball betting at Betway this morning, Golden State is a heavy -600 moneyline favourite over Los Angeles (+425). The Valkyries are also 11.5-point favourites, while the total is set at 157.5, with both the over and under at -110.
In the other game, the Aces are -450, the Mercury +350, with Las Vegas 9.5-point favourites, with Phoenix at +9.5. The total for that game is 175.5, with the Over at -115, and the Under at -105.
The No. 5 and No. 6 seeds will come down to the Indiana Fever and Washington Mystics. Indiana plays Minnesota tonight (Olivia Miles has already been ruled out with a calf injury). If the Fever win, they take the No. 5 seed. Indiana would also retain No. 5 with a loss if Washington loses to the Chicago Sky.
If Indiana loses and Washington wins in their game against Chicago, the Fever and Mystics would finish tied in the standings, with Washington getting the No. 5 seed since they hold the tiebreaker advantage after going 2-1 against the Fever this season.
At Betway, Indiana is a -160 moneyline favourite over Minnesota (+130). The Fever are also 3.5-point favourites, while the total is set at 182.5, with the over at -115 and the under at -105.
In the other game of consequence, Washington is a heavy -900 moneyline favourite over Chicago (+600). The Mystics are also 12.5-point favourites, while the total is set at 168.5, with the over at -115 and the under at -105.
All four best-of-three first-round playoff series start Sunday, with the higher seeds getting home-court advantage.
We’ll get into our WNBA first-round picks once the seeding gets settled.
Covers also highlighted some interesting trends bettors should watch as the playoffs ramp up. The Valkyries have been the WNBA’s best ATS team (25-17) going into tonight’s game and have the league’s best cover percentage, with Washington next at 24-17.
Also, don’t assume home court also means betting value. Minnesota owns the league’s best record (32-11), but the Lynx enter tonight 20-21 ATS, according to Covers.
Minnesota won two-thirds of its home games but covered the spread in only eight of 21. Their home dominance hasn’t translated into value against those inflated home spreads.
Possessions become more valuable to short series, and Golden State has the defensive acumen, with 24 of 42 lined games this season finishing under. The Valkyries have allowed 75.1 PPG, the best in the WNBA.
So that combination of defensive excellence and ATS success is noteworthy.
