Firm, dry conditions should reward elite ball-strikers and accurate drivers, with value emerging in McIlroy and Gotterup markets
Incredibly, we’re staring at golf’s final major of the season, The 154th Open Championship, starting tomorrow at Royal Birkdale Golf Club in Southport England, running through Sunday.
First tee-off is 6:35 a.m. BST, or 1:35 a.m. EST.
The storylines are plentiful. What does Scottie Scheffler (who tees off tomorrow at 9:58 a.m. BST) have left in the tank after winning just once on the PGA Tour this season?
Jordan Spieth (10:09 a.m. BST) won The Open the last time it was played at Royal Birkdale in 2017. After following his 2015 Masters victory with a U.S. Open title, and then that Open triumph, many in the golf world expected him to fast-track to all-time great level. He hasn’t won another major since.
Can Rory McIlroy (3:15 p.m. BST) bookend the major season after capturing his second straight Masters in April?
The course is playing firm, fast and brown in the heat, and it has been heavily renovated (nearly every hole has been changed). No. 5 is now a drivable par 4, with seven pot bunkers guarding the front, creating more eagle and birdie opportunities. The famous “donut bunker” remains on No. 7, but it has been shortened from 177 yards to 151 yards, and the green was raised and made smaller. The old No. 14 is gone, converted into a short-game practice area. The new No. 14 is a much tougher par 5, at 602 yards; bunkers have been repositioned, and the new undulating green has been elevated, with severe run-offs for players.
Scheffler is defending Open champ, but he just missed the cut at the Scottish Open. That was the first time since 2022. At a news conference yesterday, he said that it may have been a blessing going into Birkdale. The comments by the No. 1-ranked golfer in the world were a tell for sports bettors.
“I feel at peace, yeah,” he said. “It’s never the best thing to miss a cut, but sometimes having a couple of days off resets the body, resets the mind, and gets some time away. When you look at other sports, a football team that’s made it really far in the NFL each year, that’s hard to keep doing that every year.
“I’ve played a lot of high-level golf for a few years now. It’s later in the season. I think sometimes you get a little more tired. I’m excited to try and defend my title this week.”
McIlroy was a T4 at Birkdale in 2017, and links golf suits him.
Then there’s local boy Tommy Fleetwood (10:09 a.m. BST). One of the more likable guys on tour, he’s never won a major, so wouldn’t it be fitting to have him do that here? The World Cup final is Sunday as well. And England plays Argentina in the semi-final tonight. Think of the possibilities for an all-England Sunday. Plus, Fleetwood knows the course well.
In Open Championship betting at Betway, Scheffler is the betting favourite at +750, then McIlroy at +800, Fleetwood at +1200, Matt Fitzpatrick at +1400, and LIV Golf’s Jon Rahm at +2200. Notables are U.S. Open champ Wyndham Clark at +2800 and Chris Gotterup at +2500. Gotterup has had two PGA Tour victories in 2026 – the Sony Open in Hawaii, and the John Deere Classic, where he fired a final-round 61 to take the title.
Scheffler is -120 at Betway to finish Top 10, with McIlroy +100, Fitzpatrick +175, Fleetwood +187, and Rahm +250.
Odds for the first-round leader are Scheffler +2000, McIlroy +2200, Fleetwood +2500, Fitzpatrick +2800, and Rahm +3300.
Approach play will be key at Birkdale – hitting greens consistently, controlling distance, avoiding bunkers. That’s why Scheffler is the favourite. Plus, there’s his patience and major pedigree. It’s tempting to throw everything at Scheffler.
I will take him to win the tournament. Nice and safe.
I am going to tap into Gotterup’s streak and take him for a Top 20 finish (+150).
Birkdale rewards accurate drivers rather than long bombers. If golfers find the fairway, the ball will run with those dry, fast conditions. A quick look at the weather forecast expects a hot, mostly dry championship week with temperatures in the low 80s and winds in the 5-15 mph range. There’s a minimal chance of rain.
That puts McIlroy in play – one of the game’s longest drivers (328.2, ranked second on the PGA), but 104th on the tour in driving accuracy (57.58%). However, he is first in strokes gained off the tee (0.922).
I am going to put some money down on a Top 10 finish for McIlroy (he has four of those in 2026), at +100.
