Course fit, birdie production and strokes gained: tee-to-green are key metrics for finding value at the 3M Open
It can be tough for golf fans and bettors to get excited about the 3M Open at TPC Twin Cities in Blaine, Minn., when it immediately follows The Open Championship, the final major of the season.
Ryan Fox captured the Claret Jug in dramatic fashion on Sunday with a birdie on the 72nd hole, so it’s understandable if there’s a bit of a post-major hangover.
But don’t overlook this tournament. The 3M Open (July 23-26) features a strong field and plenty of betting opportunities, particularly in the Top 5 and Top 10 markets, where course fit can create excellent value.
TPC Twin Cities is a par-71 layout measuring 7,431 yards. Water comes into play on 15 of the 18 holes, creating plenty of birdie opportunities while punishing wayward shots with costly penalty strokes.
It’s one of the longer par-71 layouts on the PGA Tour, with wide landing areas, so players can swing aggressively with the driver.
But players who don’t bomb it can contend with exemplary iron play, ball striking, and approach shots on the Arnold Palmer-designed course. The greens are large and flat, and if the putter is working, winning scores are typically around 20-under par.
Kurt Kitayama won here in 2025, shooting 23-under par.
If you are looking to bet and you are researching statistics, focus on strokes gained: tee-to-green for players in the field who create a higher volume of birdie chances, as well as those who rank well in par-5 scoring.
That puts players like World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler, coming off a fourth-place finish at The Open Championship (will exhaustion be a factor?), in play for bettors.
Still with just the one win in 2026, Scheffler is No. 1 on tour in strokes gained: tee-to-green (1.655 average). Tom Kim is above average there, at 0.817, No. 18 on tour.
Doug Ghim is ranked No. 13 on tour, at 0.911. Then there’s Kitayama, of course, No. 16 on tour for SG: tee-to-green, 0.838, fifth in the field over the last three months. Scheffler is No. 1 in the past three months.
Going into the Scottish Open and The Open Championship (where he finished T44 and T40, respectively), Kitayama finished in the top 25 in six of the seven tournaments he played in, led by a T8 at the RBC Heritage.
The best play is to go Scheffler to win. In golf betting at Betway, Scheffler is the betting favourite to win the tournament, at +250. That’s conservative and safe and ties the course layout to Scheffler’s strengths. He’s also elite in strokes gained: approach (14th on tour, 0.545).
If you really want to play it safer, sprinkle some money down on a Top 5 finish for Scottie (-150 at Betway), or a Top 10 (-300).
I am feeling patriotic, so I am also going to put some money down on Canadian Corey Connors, 32nd on tour in strokes gained: approach (0.382). Recently, besides that missed cut at the RBC Canadian Open (whoops), there’s been a T7 at the Travelers Championship in late June, and a T14 at The Open Championship last weekend. Will the putter be nice to him (128th on tour in SG: putting)?
I am going Connors Top 10, +400.
And how could you not put some money down on the defending champion? Kitayama knows the course, knows how to attack it, and finished sixth at this event in 2024, before winning it last year. Rather than asking him to repeat as champion, a safe play is a Top 10 (+240).
With the playoffs approaching and the major out of the way, many experienced bettors prefer Top 10 and Top 20 markets for the 3M Open. This tournament is more course fit than star power. Go with the players in the field who consistently create birdie opportunities for themselves.
