Taillon’s uncertain return and Kansas City’s bullpen game put the total and Kazuma Okamoto’s power prop in focus tonight
I’m not sure where to turn on the betting front, looking at tonight’s Toronto Blue Jays-Royals matchup in Kansas City at 8:10 p.m. EST.
On the one hand, the Jays are coming off the emotional high, taking two-of-three in their just-completed series in Cleveland against the Guardians.
As I have said several times over the past few months, what the Jays have over the other teams they are scrapping with in the American League wild-card race – Cleveland, Texas Rangers, Baltimore Orioles, Minnesota Twins – is a lineup core with a steely exterior that only comes from the experience of riding all the way to the seventh game of the World Series last fall. You can’t buy that level of experience.
That’s what a Jays’ core of Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Nathan Lukes, George Springer, Alejandro Kirk, Max Scherzer – all of them – have, and they’re tapping into that right now. Those who join the lineup only absorb it. Listening to Dylan Cease talk about the team the other day, who wasn’t part of last year’s run, signing as a free agent, that became ever clearer to me.
This morning, the Jays sit just 0.5 games out of that third American League wild-card spot, along with Texas. FanGraphs odds have the Jays at 32.3% to make the playoffs.
However, tonight, factoring in all that, looking to make a few wagers, you still have Jameson Taillon on the mound for Toronto, coming back after three weeks on the injury list with right forearm tendinitis.
Taillon has struggled this year, with a 5.68 ERA.
I don’t know what we’re getting out of him tonight, facing Daniel Lynch, a relief pitcher, as the Royals go with a bullpen game. Lynch has been stretched out more by the Royals lately – typically 3-4 innings.
In MLB betting at Betway this morning, the Royals are slight home favourites at -120, while the Blue Jays are even money at +100. Toronto is +140 to win by at least two runs on the run line, while bettors must risk $190 to win $100 on Kansas City at +1.5 (-190). The total is set at 9.5 runs, with the over favoured at -120 and the under priced at +100.
So, the market suggests a close matchup with a lot of runs. Toronto’s run line offers an enticing payout. Not much of a chance at a comfortable Toronto victory.
Despite my reservations about Taillon, I’ll go Blue Jays moneyline, for the reasons around experience that I referenced before. I like the way Jays manager John Schneider has been managing his bullpen of late. So Taillon goes 2-3 innings, then you turn it over to the bullpen guys.
I’ll also take the over 9.5 at -120. Kansas City’s ballpark is a hitters’ park.
I know the 2-1 series loss to the Royals at the Rogers Centre a few weeks back still lingers, but Toronto smells that playoff spot now.
I’m also taking Kazuma Okamoto over 1.5 total bases from hits at +110. Okamoto leads Toronto with 28 home runs and brings the extra-base power to cash this prop with one swing. The plus-money makes it appealing: a double, triple, or home run gets it done.
Something to think about as the day goes on – Guerrero to hit a home run at +450. According to analysts, he has tweaked his batting stance a little, seems more confident at the plate, and is embracing his role as team leader.
