Ferrari chases a home podium through Charles Leclerc, while hot, dry weather and limited tire wear likely favour a one-stop race at Monza
Does Pierre Gasly’s stunning pole position win today at the Italian Grand Prix create more value for him in the podium market?
Tomorrow’s race is at 2 p.m. BST. It’s held at the Autodromo Nazionale Monza, or the “Temple of Speed”, known for its long straights and heavy braking zones, and the fastest track in F1 history by overall average lap speed.
Max Verstappen (Red Bull) is the defending champion. The weather forecast for tomorrow is perfect – sunny with light winds, highs of 32 degrees C.
Ferrari will naturally be chasing a home victory, but Monza rewards cars that combine elite straight-line speed with stability through its high-speed corners.
That makes Mercedes a truer favourite, which has shown the strongest overall pace, and Ferrari as well, with its low-drag setup and upgraded power unit. Gasly’s pole also demonstrated the speed of the Mercedes-powered Alpine.
Gasly is a vulnerable polesitter, with George Russell of Mercedes starting next to him after leading both FP2 and FP3.
Charles Leclerc (Ferrari) starts third, then Lewis Hamilton (Ferrari), Verstappen (Red Bull), Oscar Piastri (McLaren, bumped to sixth after he was penalized for impeding Liam Lawson’s Red Bull during Q2), Franco Colapinto (Alpine), and Lando Norris (McLaren).
Championship leader Kimi Antonelli took seventh in qualifying but starts the race at the back of the grid as he serves an engine penalty.
In F1 betting at Betway, Russell is -120 to win the race, followed by Leclerc (+400), Hamilton (+650), Gasly (+1100), Norris (+1200), Verstappen (+1200), Piastri (+1400), and Antonelli (+1600).
Russell has shown the strongest overall pace across both qualifying and race simulations, missing the pole by only 0.060 seconds, so that’s where your money should go.
Friday’s longer practice runs showed limited tire degradation, making a one-stop strategy more likely. That could leave slower cars with fewer opportunities to gain positions through alternative pit strategies.
Russell is going to have a slipstream opportunity on the long run from pole to the first chicane. He’s my best bet – but only if that price doesn’t move beyond -120.
I’m also going to lean on a Ferrari driver, and it’s Leclerc, to finish on the podium at -182 at Betway. Ferrari has been competitive with Mercedes over the long runs, and Leclerc won at Monza in 2024.
And what about sprinkling some coin on Gasly? OK, maybe not +1100 to win, but what about +225 to score a podium finish? Converting P1 into a top-three finish is a realistic outcome.
