NFL Week 4 TD Scorer Picks | Sunday NFL Picks

03 Oct 2026 | news | BY Mark Keast | MIN READ TIME |

Our NFL Week 4 TD scorer picks spotlight Sunday’s best bets, featuring expert analysis, key trends and top TD picks across the slate

It’s an interesting weekend on the NFL front, with the first London game, between the Indianapolis Colts (1-2) and the Washington Commanders (1-2), set to go tomorrow morning at 9:30 a.m. EST, then 13 Sunday games, followed by the Atlanta Falcons-New Orleans Saints Monday night tilt.

As you prep your bets for this weekend, bettors are finding more meaningful evidence about how teams intend to use their playmakers near the goal line. In this category, touchdown props, red-zone touches, and targets matter more to bettors than overall yardage.

Several major injuries going into tomorrow’s games will impact TD scorer betting. New York Jets running back Breece Hall is out with a quad injury. Tampa Bay Bucs quarterback Baker Mayfield is out with a thumb injury. Washington Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels is out with an elbow injury (he’s eyeing a Week 5 return).

San Francisco 49ers wide receiver Mike Evans is questionable with a rib injury, and if he doesn’t play, that means more red-zone opportunities for Christian McCaffrey. Same deal with Commanders WR Terry McLaurin, questionable with a hamstring injury, which would funnel red-zone opportunities to Chig Okonkwo and Antonio Williams. Commanders RB Rachaad White is out with a shoulder injury.

Houston Texans WR Nico Collins, meanwhile, has missed the past two games with a hamstring injury but was a full participant in practice Friday, so keep an eye on the injury wires for updates.

Here are my NFL Week 4 TD scorer picks.

NFL Week 4 TD Scorer Trends

Statistically, in terms of receiving, Seattle WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Detroit WR Amon-Ra St. Brown lead the NFL in red-zone (inside the 20-yard line) targets, with nine each. Smith-Njigba has five red-zone catches and four red-zone touchdowns (five targets inside the ten).

The Seahawks (2-1) take on the 0-3 L.A. Chargers, while the 2-1 Lions play the 1-2 Carolina Panthers. Arizona Cardinals tight end Trey McBride has eight red-zone targets, four red-zone catches, two red-zone TDs, and six targets inside the ten-yard line.

The Cardinals (1-2) play the New York Giants (2-1). Green Bay Packers running back Christian Watson is next, with six red-zone targets, four red-zone catches, three red-zone TDs and four targets inside the ten-yard line. The Packers (1-2) play the Bucs (0-3).

Chicago Bears wide receiver Luther Burden III has six red-zone targets, three red-zone catches, one red-zone TD, and two targets inside the ten-yard zone. The 2-1 Bears play the 1-2 Jets.

When making your picks, look at tomorrow’s matchups, not what they’ve done over the previous few weeks.

Best NFL Week 4 Running Back TD Props

Derrick Henry, Baltimore Ravens, First Touchdown

In NFL betting picks at Betway, Henry anytime touchdown scorer odds are -190, and he’s +300 to score the first touchdown.

The beast has six rushing TDs in three games, and he’s up against the 0-3 Titans and their soft run defence (they’ve allowed 126.3 rushing yards per game).

Henry faces his old team on home field as the Ravens’ clear goal-line back.

Jahmyr Gibbs, Detroit Lions, Anytime Touchdown

It seems like I am turning to Gibbs every week, but can you blame me?

Detroit is favoured against Carolina in prime time tomorrow night, on the road, and Gibbs gets both early down and red-zone work. He already has six rushing and receiving TDs.

In NFL betting at Betway, he’s -275 to score a TD. I don’t love laying -275. But this is more of a high-confidence TD pick rather than a value play. Maybe I’ll parlay it.

Gibbs has all seven of Detroit’s RB carries inside the five-yard line this season. The Panthers are allowing an NFL-worst 193.3 rushing yards per game this season.

Best NFL Week 4 Receiver TD Props

Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Seattle Seahawks, Anytime Touchdown

Why not lean in on the guy who leads the NFL in red-zone targets in the receiving category?

I like the Betway -120 price. I like the red-zone stats through three games. And I like his overall stats – 405 receiving yards, six receiving TDs. The Chargers have allowed 233 passing yards per game, 20th in the NFL.

Brock Bowers, Las Vegas Raiders, Anytime Touchdown

I’ve loved what I’ve seen from the 3-0 Raiders so far, with QB Kirk Cousins leading the NFL with 9 TDs. Pro Bowl TE Bowers is back to full health and had a helluva season debut last week against the Saints – 10 catches, 116 yards, one TD.

Plus money (+175) on a star TE for an anytime TD? That’s one of the best value looks of the weekend.

Best NFL Week 4 Quarterbacks TD Props

Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills, Anytime Touchdown

Allen is MVP favourite three games into the season, and is playing on another level, with 11 TDs so far (5 via passing, 6 rushing). With the tush push, Allen is absolute money in the red zone.

Allen is -130 for anytime touchdown against the New England Patriots tomorrow, which ranks among the best of the short prices. Cleanest quarterback score on the board. Buffalo leads the NFL with seven red-zone rushing touchdowns, with the Bills averaging a league-best 33.7 points per game.

Bill’s running back James Cook is among the league’s best, but Allen is their Henry-like power runner.

Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles, Anytime Touchdown

Underdogs against the L.A. Rams at home tomorrow and coming off an upset loss to the Chicago Bears Monday night, the Eagles need a bounce-back performance.

I like Hurts anytime TD scorer at +165, one of the better prices for the mobile quarterbacks out there. He’s the Eagles’ designed goal-line runner inside the five. The Ravens’ Lamar Jackson is longer, at +240, but has only one rushing score, and the Ravens use Henry in short yardage.