Three weeks of NFL results have reshaped the futures boards, creating intriguing value and some prices bettors may want to avoid
Three games into the NFL season, futures become more informed but often less valuable.
That’s the question bettors weigh this time of year: they now have real usage, performance, and team-quality information; some preseason uncertainty has disappeared, and genuine breakout candidates are emerging.
There are advantages and dangers in jumping into futures after Week 3. But bettors may not know nearly as much as some early-season performances suggest.
Injuries are going to happen. Contenders will fade. Slow starters will bounce back. Some September breakout stars will tumble back to earth.
An advantage for bettors is that the guessing game that set the markets earlier in the season has started to whittle down the candidates list. We now have three weeks of evidence on player usage, team quality, and how offseason changes are translating onto the field.
However, sportsbooks have the same information, and odds have moved accordingly. Is it time for a bettor to buy something now before the rest of the market catches up?
Regular Season MVP
In NFL betting, Josh Allen at +200 is the obvious candidate, given his performances so far and his role in leading the Bills to a 3-0 record. Allen has five passing touchdowns and six rushing touchdowns. That’s a pretty short number with 14 games remaining. Brock Purdy, at +475, has nine touchdowns over three games and one interception for the 49ers.
The Ravens’ Lamar Jackson at +600 interests me the most. He ranks among the NFL’s elite dual-threat QBs, and Betway is offering him at three times the Allen market.
My Best Bet: Lamar Jackson (+600)
Offensive Rookie of the Year
Jeremiyah Love, the Arizona Cardinals’ running back, has 160 yards on 41 carries so far, with one TD. Love has quickly separated himself from the pack and is the +130 favourite. Not sure about the price. Denzel Boston (nine receptions, 195 yards, 2 TDs), the Cleveland Browns wide receiver, is interesting at +700, since his early playing time suggests more opportunity as the season plays out. Love is the safe play, though.
My Best Bet: Jeremiyah Love (+130)
Defensive Rookie of the Year
This one is easy – Dolphins’ middle linebacker Jacob Rodriguez is at +350 at Betway, with 28 tackles through three games. In Week 3, he had six tackles, three tackles for loss and an interception. DE David Bailey of the Jets is +500, with Commanders’ LB Sonny Styles at +650 and Giants’ LB Arvell Reese at +900.
My Best Bet: Jacob Rodriguez (+350)
Offensive Player of the Year
Jahmyr Gibbs has been the story so far. The Lions’ running back tops the board at +320 and strengthened his case with 164 yards from scrimmage and three TDs against the Jets in Week 3. Jaxon Smith-Njigba though at +500 is appealing, considering the Seahawks WR just caught 10 passes for 128 yards and 2 TDs against the Commanders. He has the high-volume receiver role to stay at the top of the board.
My Best Bet: Jaxon Smith-Njigba +500
Defensive Player of the Year
DE Will Anderson Jr. is a full-marks pick for his +300 favourite status with four sacks through three games, including 2.5 in Week 3. LB Greg Rousseau of the 3-0 Bills is an interesting longer-odds play at +1200. Rousseau has six sacks through three games, three times the Anderson Jr. price.
My Best Bet: Greg Rousseau (+1200)
Comeback Player of the Year
Chiefs’ quarterback Patrick Mahomes, back from a torn ACL and LCL, is the obvious choice, given how well the Chiefs have played through three weeks. But at -250? That’s difficult to recommend in September. The Bengals’ Joe Burrow at +1600 is a more attractive risk-reward pick this early.
My Best Bet: Joe Burrow (+1600)
