Wild-card series markets offer intriguing value, while American League futures warrant more caution heading into the MLB playoffs
The MLB postseason gets underway today with four best-of-three wild-card series across the country.
The Philadelphia Phillies visit the Atlanta Braves, the Chicago White Sox take on the Astros in Houston, the Boston Red Sox play the Yankees at Yankee Stadium in New York, and the Chicago Cubs head to San Diego to face the Padres.
It wasn’t exactly a banner season for the American League. The Astros squeezed into the postseason at .500, edging out several other teams hovering around the break-even mark during the final days of the playoff race.
That raises an interesting question as October begins: How much should bettors trust the American League contenders, and where does the value lie in MLB futures heading into the postseason?
A quick look at MLB betting futures at Betway, on the American League side, since that’s our focus, with the Tampa Bay Rays and Cleveland Guardians waiting to take on the wild-card series winners.
The Rays are favourites to win the American League title and move on to the World Series (the National League’s Los Angeles Dodgers are still betting favourites to win the World Series), at +265, followed by the Yankees (+300), Guardians (+325), Red Sox (+650), Astros (+750) and White Sox (+1100).
In the wild card series, Betway has the Yankees at -166 to beat the Red Sox (+140), with the series to go over 2.5 games at -116 (-125 on the under).
The Astros are -141 to beat the White Sox (+120), with the series to go over 2.5 games at -121 (-121 on the under).
For the Cubs-Padres series, San Diego is a slight -116 favourite to advance, with Chicago priced at -106. Both the Over and Under 2.5 games played for the series are priced at -110.
Best value play? I’ll lean toward the Red Sox at +140, since they just need two wins to take the series. That’s assuming the bats wake up like they were June through August, when Boston was soaring, not the September version, when they had the worst run-scoring offence in baseball.
Yankees’ starting pitching is elite, led by Cy Young Award favourite Cam Schlittler, Max Fried, Gerrit Cole and Carlos Rodon, all capable of navigating playoff lineups and pitching deep into games.
But I like the Boston core of Willson Contreras (.275, 27 HR, 81 RBI), Ceddanne Rafaela (.283, 16 HR, 70 RBI), and Wilyer Abreu (.248, 24 HR, 76 RBI). And I’m not optimistic the Yankees’ Aaron Judge gets back in there – he’s been declared out for Game 1 tonight, trying to work his way back from a calf injury. The Yankees announced Giancarlo Stanton is back, activated from the 60-day injured list.
I also like the Over 2.5 games at -116. This is a great rivalry with a rich tradition. Boston is competitive enough to steal one game, at the least, a path to cash without asking the Red Sox to win the series, if that’s the way you want to go.
At this stage, I’m more comfortable focusing on the wild-card series markets, where the matchups and paths to advancing are much easier to assess.
The American League pennant futures require a little more caution, particularly with Tampa Bay and Cleveland already waiting in the next round and several wild-card teams facing a much more difficult road just to get there.
