Tampa Bay's pitching advantage, Cleveland's bullpen workload and a low run total shape tonight's ALCS Game 1 betting picks
The American League Championship Series kicks off tonight, with the Cleveland Guardians in St. Petersburg taking on the Tampa Bay Rays, who went 55-26 at home this past regular season.
The Guardians finished 85-77, first in the American League Central, while the Rays finished 98-64 overall, first in the American League East.
The Guardians are starting Foster Griffin (15-6, 3.60 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 158 strikeouts) against the Rays’ Drew Rasmussen (16-5, 2.67 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, 174 strikeouts).
Game time is 8 p.m. EST.
In MLB betting at Betway this morning, the Rays are -170 moneyline favourites over the visiting Guardians (+140). Tampa Bay is also favoured by 1.5 runs on the run line (+125), while Cleveland at +1.5 (-165). The over/under is set at a relatively low 6.5 runs, with the over priced at -115 and the under at -105.
The Rays are clear favourites at home, but the moneyline is steep, requiring a $170 bet to win $100. That Tampa -1.5 runline at plus money is more interesting.
Rasmussen threw eight scoreless innings against the Yankees in his previous postseason start, striking out 10. He also has had extra rest. That strengthens the case for making Tampa the favourite.
This will be the seventh time these two teams have met this season, with the Rays holding a 5-1 edge.
On the injury front heading into Game 1, for the Rays, Edwin Uceta (shoulder), Gavin Lux (shoulder), Jon Heasley (elbow), Jacob Melton (hamstring), Ryan Pepiot (hip) are all on the 60-day IL, while Shane McClanahan (forearm) is on the 15-day IL.
Rhys Hoskins (back) is on the Guardians’ 10-day IL, and Colin Holderman (wrist) is on the 15-day IL.
I’m taking Tampa -1.5. Better payout, compared with the moneyline, plus with Rasmussen on the mound, Tampa has a pitching advantage.
The Rays are coming off the Yankees’ sweep and are rested. The Guardians played Game 5 of their series against the White Sox on Saturday.
Griffin is no slouch, though, so that’s a reason to take the Under 6.5 total runs (-105), plus the fact that seven of their previous eight meetings finished under the total.
Tropicana Field is also a pitcher’s park – an indoor stadium with a fixed roof, so no wind or weather variability to affect fly balls. It’s not the major reason for betting the Under, but it’s a factor.
I also like Junior Caminero to hit a home run (+350). He’s the Rays’ biggest power threat (42 HRs, 101 RBIs this season), and 22 of those are at Tropicana Field. He’s the most likely to go deep against Griffin or a stretched-out Guardians’ bullpen. A nice smaller-stake bet with a lot of upside.
Griffin gave up 19 home runs in 22 starts with Washington, but only four in nine starts after being traded to Cleveland. He had a 5.19 ERA, though, in his starts for Cleveland.
