Toronto’s sweep of Seattle lifted its wild-card chances to 25.6% as it heads to Cleveland 1.5 games behind the Guardians
According to Fangraphs today, the Toronto Blue Jays (68-70), riding off a series sweep over the Seattle Mariners this past weekend, now have a 25.6% chance of taking the third American League wild-card spot.
That’s a far cry from earlier last week, when their own fans were booing them in a loss to the Kansas City Royals.
Tomorrow night the Jays roll into Cleveland to start a three-game series with the Guardians, the team they are chasing in the wild-card race, now 1.5 games back. Spencer Arrighetti (7-7, 4.81 ERA), who has struggled over his last two games, starts for Toronto.
That’s the big story on the local front, in terms of baseball anyway.
Tonight it’s a full MLB schedule, with 12 games lined up. Milwaukee Brewers versus Chicago Cubs is the biggest divisional showdown on the slate. The Brewers are rolling, with an 8-game lead in the National League Central, so they’re looking to keep their foot on the gas.
The Tampa Bay Rays are sitting pretty, in first place in the American League East at 82-54, 4.5 games up on the New York Yankees, and face a bad New York Mets team (61-76) and a struggling starter in Robert Stock (0-3, 7.40 ERA).
The Atlanta Braves, on a hot streak, winners of seven straight, host the San Francisco Giants. The Braves are dominant at home, facing a Giants team that’s way out of it (56-81). Like the Brewers, the Braves are looking to keep the momentum, as they chase the top seed in the NL East.
I also have my eye on Jacob deGrom, on the mound for the Texas Rangers, at home against the lowly Oakland A’s (53-84), two games out of the American League wild-card, right after the Blue Jays. That’s a game to focus on, with big stakes for the Rangers.
In MLB betting at Betway, the Cubs are -115 moneyline favourites, with the Brewers at -105. Chicago is +1.5 (-180) on the runline, while Milwaukee is -1.5 (+135). The total is 9.5, with the over at +100 and under at -120. First pitch is 7:40 p.m. ET.
Tampa Bay is -190 on the moneyline, while New York is +160. The runline is Tampa -1.5 (+105) and New York +1.5 (-125), while the total is 7.5, with the over at -120 and the under at +100. First pitch is 6:40 p.m. EST.
In the Atlanta games, the Braves are -200 moneyline favourites, and the Giants are +175. The runline is Atlanta -1.5 (+105), San Francisco +1.5 (-125). The total is 8.5, with the over -130 and under +110. First pitch is 6:05 p.m. EST.
In the Rangers game, Texas is -210, and Oakland is +175. The runline is Rangers -1.5 (+100), A’s +1.5 (-120), with the total 7.5 (over is +100, under is -120). First pitch is 8:05 p.m. EST.
Stock allowed seven runs and 10 hits in his start, so I’m going Rays’ moneyline at -190. The Rays rank sixth in MLB in OPS.
I’m also taking the Rangers -1.5 at that plus money (+100). Rangers moneyline is a little expensive; laying 1.5 runs is a much better price, especially with deGrom on the mound.
And how about this for a prop bet – Rafael Devers of the Giants over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs (-135). He has a great history against Braves starting pitcher Bryce Elder and has been raking lately (8 runs, 12 hits, 3 HRS in the last 7 games).
Pete Crow-Armstrong of the Cubs to hit a home run (+300) is another interesting option if you are looking at a prop bet. He’s hit 5 HRs in the past 6 games. He’s mashing it – a perfect spot for a moonshot at Wrigley Field tonight.
Happy betting on a rainy Monday. Look at the bright side – it’s just over a week until the start of the NFL season.
