A rested Toronto bullpen, a low total and attractive Kwan and Okamoto props shape tonight’s pivotal wild-card matchup in Cleveland
So you’re sitting down to make a bet or two on tonight’s massive Toronto Blue Jays-Cleveland Guardians game, and you see the news that the Jays are going to start right-hander Spencer Miles as an opener, as opposed to Spencer Arrighetti.
Arrighetti was originally scheduled to start the game and will now likely follow Miles, Sportsnet reports.
I don’t know about you, but that changes my outlook more in the Jays’ favour. Miles (83.1 innings pitched, 2.92 ERA) has been Steady Eddie all season, one of the few bright spots in an up–and–down – largely down – season.
Looking at the wild-card standings, this will go down as the most important series of the season for Toronto. The Guardians sit in that third and final wild-card spot presently, at 69-68. The Jays (68-70) sit 1.5 games behind the Guardians, with the Texas Rangers (also 1.5 games back) and the Baltimore Orioles (69-69, 0.5 games back) sitting between them and Cleveland.
Game time for Game 1 of a three-game series is 6:40 p.m. EST.
Chase DeLauter is coming off a massive game for the Guardians – four hits in Sunday’s 11-1 win over the Kansas City Royals. Jose Ramirez is 11 for 42 with four doubles, a homer and 10 RBI over his past 10 games.
George Springer is 16 for 34 with four doubles and two homers over his past 10 games for Toronto.
The Guardians counter with Gavin Williams (12-7, 3.98 ERA, 1.12 WHIP and 204 strikeouts). The Jays follow up with their studs, Dylan Cease and Jose Soriano, on the mound for Games 2 and 3, so if you’re going to bet against them, tonight is the game.
Still, as said, Miles has me looking at this game much more positively than if Arrighetti was starting.
In MLB betting at Betway, the Guardians are -180 moneyline favourites over the Blue Jays (+150). Cleveland is -1.5 (+110) on the runline, with Toronto +1.5 (-130). The total is 7.5, with the over at -120 and the under at +100.
So, Cleveland is the clear favourite, but the market expects a close, low-scoring game. Cleveland -1.5 suggests a multi-run game is less certain.
An advantage for the Jays is a fully rested bullpen, after a day off yesterday and a seven-inning performance by Max Scherzer in Sunday’s win in the third game of their series against the Seattle Mariners.
From a Jays’ perspective, tonight comes down to how well manager John Schneider and pitching coach Pete Walker utilize the bullpen.
That’s why I am taking that Toronto +1.5 runline at -130. Toronto’s opener strategy helps shield Arrighetti from the top of that Cleveland batting order – Steven Kwan, DeLauter, Ramirez and Travis Bazzana, dangerous more via on-base ability, contact and speed than power.
Arrighetti has posted a 7.36 ERA over his first two Blue Jays appearances.
Cleveland is only 32-36 at home.
The Guardians have the American League’s fourth-best team ERA, and with Schneider’s ability to handle his bullpen, I’ll take the under 7.5 for plus money. Both offences have been below league average overall, especially the Jays’.
On the player prop side, I’d be looking at Kwan – over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs is -135 at Betway. That’s an excellent place to go since Kwan has been batting .376 since the All-Star break with multiple hits in five of his past seven games.
On the Jays’ side, go Kazuma Okamoto over 0.5 total bases (hits only), at -125. Okamoto homered against Williams earlier this season.
