2022/23 Premier League outright tips: Golden Boot
Erling Haaland is the clear favourite to win the Golden Boot for the 2022/23 Premier League season.
Ahead of the 2022/23 Premier League season, we’re assessing Betway’s industry-leading outright markets offering.
One of the most hotly contested markets is the Golden Boot, with forwards from Manchester City, Liverpool, Tottenham and Arsenal all among the favourites to be the Premier League's top goalscorer.
Here we'll look at the main contenders, as well as some outside shots, and offer our picks.
Erling Haaland (Manchester City)
Haaland arrives at Man City as one of the most prolific strikers in recent memory, having scored a staggering 114 club goals in 111 games since the beginning of the 2019/20 campaign.
The question, however, is how the former Dortmund striker’s goalscoring exploits will translate to the Premier League and, specifically, to Pep Guardiola’s City side.
A poor performance in the Community Shield has seen Haaland ridiculed on social media, but despite failing to score and generally looking ungainly, he racked up an xG of 1.59 against City’s likeliest title rivals. An embarrassing day was, in fact, an encouraging one in terms of his Golden Boot chances. If he gets those chances every week, he’ll score plenty.
It might not quite be enough, though. None of the last 26 Golden Boot winners were in their first Premier League season, and Romelu Lukaku is a very recent example of a previously dominant striker failing to make it work with a new team.
Haaland may make the doubters look silly, but a potentially slow start – along with the injury issues that have seen him miss 26 games in the last two seasons – mean there are better bets.
Mohamed Salah (Liverpool)
Coming off his third Golden Boot win in five seasons, Salah again looks a top contender this time around.
The 30-year-old took more shots than any player in the Premier League last season, has ranked inside the top two for xG in all of his five campaigns and rarely misses games.
It’s very difficult to pick flaws in Salah’s candidacy, but Darwin Nunez’s arrival at Anfield means the Egyptian is more likely to stay wide than to drift centrally, as was the case in a more fluid front three that featured Sadio Mane.
Salah also cooled off over the second half of the 2021/22 campaign, finding the net just four times from March onwards and allowing Son Heung-Min to claim a share of the Golden Boot.
Salah can never be ruled out, but there’s one player at a slightly longer price who appears to have just as good a chance.
TIP: HARRY KANE (TOTTENHAM)
Kane scored 17 goals last season to finish six behind Salah and Son, but the England captain could have been well clear of everyone else had he not made a terrible start to the campaign.
Clearly impacted by speculation surrounding a potential transfer to Man City – and in a Spurs team struggling under Nuno Espirito Santo – Kane failed to score a single Premier League goal until mid-October and only had two by Christmas.
He went on to score 15 more from Boxing Day onwards – more than any other player – and comes into this season completely settled at Spurs under Antonio Conte, and having enjoyed a summer off.
Kane’s xG in 2021/22 was 20.69, the second-highest in the league. Before last season, he had outperformed his xG in every Premier League campaign of his career, so a big tally is very much on the cards this season if he returns to being the league’s finest finisher.
Other than an injury, there’s nothing stopping the three-time winner from contending again this year and he looks a cracking bet.
Darwin Nunez (Liverpool)
In contrast to Haaland, Nunez’s stock is on the rise after scoring and earning a penalty in the Community Shield.
The Uruguayan scored 26 goals in the Portuguese top flight last season, a tally that would have been enough to win the Premier League Golden Boot in each of the past four seasons.
It’s going to be tough for him to replicate that output in England, though. Like Haaland, he’ll likely need to adapt to the Premier League and will be competing with Salah, Luis Diaz, Roberto Firmino and Diogo Jota for a spot in Liverpool’s front three.
Gabriel Jesus (Arsenal)
Arsenal fans are excited about Jesus after an excellent pre-season, but the 25-year-old looks to have an outside chance at best in the Golden Boot race.
The Brazilian is adept at getting into dangerous positions – he led the league in xG when he last played 30 games in a season (2019/20) – but he’s never been a lethal finisher and is yet to score 15 goals in a Premier league campaign.
It’s hard to imagine Jesus topping Haaland, Salah and Kane, although he does look a better bet in the most shots on target market at the much longer price of 40/1.
Son Heung-Min (Tottenham)
Son’s finishing was remarkable last season. He outperformed his xG by six goals, the most of any player other than Kevin De Bruyne.
The 30-year-old probably would have pipped Salah to the Golden Boot outright had there been a couple more matches at the end of the season, given how he came on strong during the run-in. The only concern this year, however, is what a better season for Kane would mean for Son’s chances.
A backwards step looks more likely for the Korean as he had never scored more than 17 in a season before last year and now faces genuine competition for a place from summer signing Richarlison.
Cristiano Ronaldo (Manchester United)
This is the longest price that Ronaldo has been in a top goalscorer market for years, and for good reason.
The Portuguese legend bagged 18 league goals last season, but he’s clearly unhappy at United and could leave the club before the end of the transfer window.
No player over the age of 32 has ever won the Premier League Golden Boot, and 34 of the 38 winners in history have been under the age of 30.
Now 37 years of age, Ronaldo is clearly one to swerve in this market.
A player priced at 50/1 or bigger has claimed a Golden Boot place in 16 of the last 20 seasons, so it’s well worth backing some longer shots each-way.
Aleksander Mitrovic has never quite got going in the Premier League, but a 43-goal Championship season can’t be ignored. If Fulham exceed expectations, he’ll surely score a fair share.
Injury issues might be the only thing holding Callum Wilson back this season. He scored eight goals for Newcastle this season and will be a guaranteed starter – if he can stay fit – for a side that should improve.
Finally, Ollie Watkins looks a huge price. The England international bagged 11 goals last season and looks to have beaten Danny Ings to a starting role for a team that should challenge for the top 10.