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Football League mid-season tips: The best outright bets from each division

30 Dec | BY Betway | MIN READ TIME |
Football League mid-season tips: The best outright bets from each division

We reflect on the first half of the campaign and give our picks for promotion, play-offs and relegation...

Championship

Unbeaten in 17 and top of the form table, Brighton lead the way in the Championship.

The Seagulls only missed out on automatic promotion because of their inferior goal difference last season but, given that ten of the past 11 leaders at halfway have finished in the top two, the Premier League beckons this time around.

That, though, is reflected in their price of {ODDS:96804733:1/7}.

The best value can be found in backing them to win the title ({ODDS:90050603:7/4}), with six of the last eight teams leading at this stage going on to win the division.

Newcastle, too, look certainties for promotion, but again at a short price of {ODDS:96804752:1/16}.

In terms of play-off spots, serial-faders Derby should be avoided at {ODDS:96805619:8/13} considering that they have let two automatic promotion spots and a play-off position slip from a better position in the past three seasons.

The play-off winners, meanwhile, have come from the top seven at this stage in each of the past eight seasons, meaning there is little hope of promotion for this season’s mid-table sides.

In-form Huddersfield – who have won four on the spin – and fourth-placed Leeds, though, represent excellent value at {ODDS:96804742:6/1} and {ODDS:96804740:5/1} respectively.

At the bottom, Rotherham ({ODDS:96806529:1/100}) – who are marooned 10 points from safety at the foot of the table – look relegation certainties.

With each of the past seven sides who were bottom at this stage having gone down, their short price is understandable.

Currently on a six-match losing streak and only three points above the drop zone, QPR offer good value to go down at {ODDS:96806531:2/1}, while second-bottom Wigan ({ODDS:96806544:10/11}) have lost five on the bounce and look set for an immediate return to League One.

Newcastle’s Dwight Gayle is the obvious favourite in the race for the Golden Boot at {ODDS:99573560:4/11}, having scored 17 goals already – the joint-most in the Football League.

His closest contender, Brighton’s Glenn Murray, is two goals behind and – given that he scored 30 in his last full season in the Championship (2012/13) – is a brilliant price at {ODDS:99573566:4/1}.

League One

Scunthorpe currently head League One, but just one win in four has seen their lead cut from six points to one.

Notably, Walsall were in the same position at this point last season and finished third, before missing out in the play-offs. As such, the Iron should be avoided at {ODDS:92173434:3/1}.

The best bet for the title looks to be favourites Sheffield United at {ODDS:92173435:10/11}.

The Blades have lost just once in the last 19 league games, and like last season’s champions, Wigan – who were eight points behind the leaders at halfway – they look unstoppable after a shaky start.

Bolton ({ODDS:92173418:100/30}) cannot be discounted, though.

Phil Parkinson’s side are a place and a point behind Sheffield United and top of the form table, having dropped just six points in the last 10 matches.

A top-six place is still a realistic target for many sides, especially given Barnsley’s run in the second half of last season – when they made up a 13-point shortfall and climbed from 19th to sixth.

As a result, 18th-placed MK Dons hold some value at {ODDS:96810597:14/1} to reach the play-offs, while Charlton ({ODDS:96810592:11/2}) have lost just one in six and are capable of making up the six-point gap.

With fifth-placed Bradford City in danger of fading away – winning just one in six – that could in fact happen sooner rather than later.

At the wrong end, at least two of the bottom four at this stage have been relegated in eight of the last nine seasons.

Bottom side Coventry ({ODDS:96810620:8/13}), then, look destined for the drop after seven consecutive losses put them five points from safety.

Bury ({ODDS:96810617:8/13}) – who are currently 20th and on a 17-match winless streak – look good value, too.

Considering that the past three seasons has seen a side placed 17th-20th drop into the bottom four, history is not on the Shakers’ side.

Billy Sharp ({ODDS:99574535:11/10}), Josh Morris ({ODDS:107642475:13/2}) and Matty Taylor ({ODDS:99574541:9/1}) are all at least three goals ahead of the rest in the race for the Golden Boot.

Given that the award has not been won by a midfielder since 2005/06, the omens are not good for Morris.

Bristol Rovers’ Taylor, meanwhile, is three behind Sharp and featuring for a less consistent side than Sheffield United.

League Two

Doncaster Rovers are the team to stop in League Two, having won five of their last six matches.

They are the league’s highest scorers and their manager, Darren Ferguson, is experienced in promotion – an ideal combination.

As clear favourites, they are the obvious bet to claim the title at {ODDS:92175137:7/4}.

Second-placed Plymouth, though, justify far less faith.

Argyle were top of League Two at this stage last season but collapsed to a fifth-place finish.

Their recent form suggests that another fall may be imminent.

Derek Adams’ have won two and lost three of their last six matches.

Given their track record, then, a price of {ODDS:96810859:4/9} to win promotion is worth avoiding.

Notably, last season’s play-off winners, AFC Wimbledon, were down in 14th at this stage last year.

And that offers hope to the group of mid-table sides aiming for a late dash into League Two’s top seven.

In-form sides Barnet, Colchester and Exeter are all within seven points of the play-off positions and are available at {ODDS:96810955:7/1}, {ODDS:96810960:4/1} and {ODDS:96810964:11/2} respectively to feature in the four-way tussle for promotion at the end of the season.

Top of the league’s form table, Wycombe ({ODDS:96810975:1/1}) look good value to be there, too.   

At the other end, things are equally as close.

Not since the 2009/10 season have the bottom two at this stage ultimately both been relegated, so backing Newport ({ODDS:96811081:11/8}) and Cheltenham ({ODDS:96811069:3/1}) to go down is dangerous.

A side that featured in the play-offs in the previous season has not been relegated since the division was renamed League Two in 2004 – so 20th-placed Accrington Stanley ({ODDS:96811064:8/1}) will also fancy their chances of survival.

Notts County ({ODDS:96811082:11/4}) have lost all of their last seven matches and look distinct possibilities for the drop, though, as do Morecambe ({ODDS:96811080:7/4}) and perennial strugglers Hartlepool ({ODDS:96811076:9/4}).

Barnet’s John Akinde ({ODDS:99575864:11/8}) and Grimsby’s Omar Bogle ({ODDS:99575871:15/8}) have put distance between themselves and the rest in the top scorer stakes, meanwhile, and are probably the only two worth considering.

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