Makhachev’s submission prop and an early Ribovics finish highlight our best bets on a championship-heavy UFC 330 card
UFC 330 takes over Xfinity Mobile Arena in Philadelphia tonight, with a pair of title fights highlighting a card with a distinctly Canadian flavour.
Fire engine red-haired Gillian Robertson, from Niagara Falls, Ont., steps into the Octagon to take on champion MacKenzie Dern from Brazil in a women’s strawweight title bout.
In the other title bout, Russia’s Islam Makhachev defends his men’s welterweight title belt against Ireland’s Ian Machado Garry.
In UFC betting at Betway, Dern is the favourite at -188, and Robertson is +150. In the other title bout, Makhachev is the big favourite at -334, and Garry is at +250.
It’s Robertson’s first five-round fight.
“I feel so at home in those five rounds,” she told Sportsnet. “This is a chance to get myself recognized. To be Canada’s first woman champ would be a huge point for me. Once we get into later rounds, it will be rough for her.”
Robertson’s biggest strengths are when the fight hits the mat – grappling, top control and submission threats. She averages 2.76 takedowns per 15 minutes. Recent wins over Marina Rodriguez and Polyana Viana came via ground-and-pound TKO.
Brazilian jiu-jitsu is Dern’s greatest strength, so Robertson might not have the advantage if the fight goes to the mat.
I think the fight goes the distance, so I’m going to take that at Betway (-151).
Two superior grapplers, neutralizing each other’s submission threat. Robertson has a five-win streak, and she’s gone the distance every time. Dern is comfortable going into the late rounds as well.
MMA Mania is predicting a Dern win by decision, and that makes a lot of sense if you figure that Dern will win more of the striking exchanges. Dern to win by decision is +150 (Robertson is +275).
Stay away from markets where Robertson wins by submission (+1200), despite her nine career submission victories. Dern is a decorated Brazilian jiu-jitsu specialist.
Robertson is seeing some love on the betting markets – I saw her leading the way, up there with Makhachev, in handle to win.
In the other main card fights tonight (main card gets going at 9 p.m. EST), Jalin Turner takes on Kaue Fernandes in a lightweight bout. Turner is -120, Fernandes -105.
Masur Abdul-Malik takes on Dustin Stoltzfus in a middleweight fight. Malik is the big favorite there (-650), and Stoltzfus at +450.
Edson Barboza takes on Esteban Ribovics in a lightweight bout, with Ribovics at -650 and Barboza at +450.
I am also leaning Makhachev by submission +120. A method prop is much cleaner than that heavy moneyline price. The Russian is an elite wrestler, with top control and a submission threat that overwhelms most of the fighters he faces. Garry is 17-1-0 and is a lengthy striker with good fight IQ, with a couple of recent fight wins, but most of the expert consensus is leaning Makhachev.
Also, check out Under 1.5 rounds (+105 at Betway) for the heavily favoured Ribovics fight, since both men can finish fights quickly. Ribovics prefers early-round aggression. You might want to avoid a bathroom break at the start of this one, or you might miss out how it ends.
