Early NBA injuries are shaking up championship futures odds, with Toronto, Oklahoma City and San Antonio presenting tough betting decisions
One week into the season, what are your thoughts about NBA championship futures?
The breaking Kawhi Leonard news is exactly why the objective isn’t necessarily to identify today’s eventual champion; instead, it’s to find the best possible price on a legitimate championship contender.
Don’t chase teams simply because they’ve started strongly, and don’t dismiss legitimate championship contenders because of a slow start. The NBA season is an 82-game marathon, with futures markets reacting aggressively to results, injuries, and shifting expectations.
In NBA betting at Betway today, the San Antonio Spurs are +290, the Oklahoma City Thunder are +340, followed by the Philadelphia 76ers (+900), New York Knicks (+1000), Boston Celtics (+1200), then the Toronto Raptors (+1400), Minnesota Timberwolves (+1600), and Houston Rockets (+1800).
On Oct. 20, the Spurs and Thunder were +260, followed by the Knicks and 76ers at +900, Celtics at +1400, then the Denver Nuggets (1-2), Timberwolves and Raptors at +2500. The Cleveland Cavaliers, Detroit Pistons and Heat rounded out the group at +2800.
If you haven’t heard, the Raptors medical staff has shut Leonard down for weeks after swelling in his left knee, ESPN’s Shams Charania reports, just three games into the season. The Raptors say they’ll re-evaluate him in a week. Remember that Leonard’s knee problems historically have been with the right knee. The good news, though, was that an MRI on Leonard’s knee showed no structural damage.
“Yeah, it’s always frustrating missing time. I came back to compete with this team, and I’m focused on getting back to 100. Toronto, I’ve appreciated the love since I’ve been back. Returning soon,” Leonard posted on his X feed today.
The Raptors plan to use the time off to ramp Leonard up properly for a long NBA season, since the NBA’s investigation into the Clippers and Leonard over accusations of salary cap circumvention hampered his offseason preparation. Leonard had a slow ramp-up through camp and preseason.
Leonard’s health was the main concern critics had about the trade with the L.A. Clippers last June that brought Leonard back to the Raptors. At 35, could he stay healthy and bump what was a playoff team last year into the elite bracket – maybe not the Thunder and Spurs, but definitely in the same neighbourhood as the Knicks, Timberwolves, and 76ers?
Leonard already missed their last game, a blowout loss to the Timberwolves on Sunday, which pushed them to 2-1. That game raised questions about whether the Raptors can compete with the elite teams without Leonard.
The Raptors play the Orlando Magic at home tomorrow night.
Look at how the week played out across the NBA. The defending champion Knicks are 0-3. The Thunder experienced two devastating injuries to starters -Jalen Williams suffering a fractured fibula and dislocated left ankle, and Cason Wallace suffering a torn labrum in his left shoulder. Both players could miss the year. They’ll have to trade for someone.
Golden State (1-3) is awful. What are the Miami Heat (0-4)? The Giannis-Bam partnership doesn’t look great so far. Houston, though, looks good through Week 1. The 76ers will stagger LeBron James and Joel Embiid all season. Luka Doncic scored 52 points for the Lakers (3-0) Sunday night against Utah (1-3).
Toronto at +1400, still considering the Leonard news, is a surprise, a major change from +2500. Who knows how long he will be out? Is there still value now that the odds have shortened so dramatically? The Raptors dominated the Bulls in Game 1, won a tight one over Washington, then lost to Minnesota.
My advice? Spread smaller wagers across the season, targeting injury-driven opportunities. Embiid has already been out of the 76ers lineup due to right plantar fasciitis management.
I am going to sprinkle a little cash today on the Thunder at +340, since they’ve drifted a little with those injuries, but their roster is established, they have a league MVP, and they have championship-contending experience.
