Jacob Misiorowski gives Milwaukee the pitching edge in Game 5 as the Brewers look to finish off Tampa Bay. Here are our best bets and props.
The Tampa Bay Rays extended their World Series life with a dramatic 4-3 Game 4 win at Tropicana Field last night, after three games looking overmatched against the Milwaukee Brewers.
Game 5 is tonight at 8 p.m.
Jacob Misiorowski will start for the Brewers, while the Rays starter has yet to be named as I write this.
In MLB betting at Betway, the Brewers are -160 moneyline favourites, with the Rays at +130. Milwaukee is favoured by 1.5 runs (+110), while Tampa Bay is +1.5 (-140). The total is set at a low 6.5 runs, with the Over at -120 and the Under at +100.
The odds suggest a tight, low-scoring game, even though we don’t yet know the Rays’ starting pitcher.
That’s a steep price to back the Brewers on the moneyline, so Milwaukee -1.5 might be a better option if you expect a comfortable win.
That’s also a low total, placing added emphasis on starting pitching and bullpen performance. Yesterday’s 12-inning game might push the Rays into a bullpen game, but we’ll see.
That’s a significant starting pitching advantage for Milwaukee.
Credit the Rays for gutting that one out last night, but I am taking the Brewers moneyline, even at that relatively high price. Misiorowski is a beast, throws north of 100 mph, and finished the regular season with a 1.80 ERA and 252 strikeouts.
In Game 1 of the World Series, he held the Rays to just one run over five innings.
Milwaukee has the better overall roster and the pitching edge, despite the Rays’ home-field momentum and last night’s walk-off energy.
Take the Under 6.5, as well. The series has been mostly low-scoring and tight (Games 1, 2 and 4 all decided by one run). Both bullpens were taxed, yes, but with Misiorowski suppressing the offence and a patched Rays staff, I can see attrition rather than a slugfest.
I also read somewhere that Tropicana Field also tends to favour lower scoring.
On the prop side, what about Jackson Chourio Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs, at -150? Chourio has been the big offensive story so far, with 10 hits in four games (tying Babe Ruth’s 98-year-old record for most hits through the first four games of the World Series). The 22-year-old is a five-tool star who clearly loves the spotlight.
I also like the +105 price on Misiorowski Under 5.5 strikeouts. He hasn’t pitched beyond five innings in any of his postseason starts, and had just three strikeouts against the Rays in Game 1.
Plus, Tampa’s grind-it-out, contact-oriented lineup is tough to put down, and their season is on the line.
