Two title fights are on the main card tonight, led by Khamzat Chimaev versus Sean Strickland, for the middleweight belt
UFC 328, tonight, 9 p.m. EST, Prudential Center, Newark
Those of you who watched yesterday’s weigh-in for UFC 328 saw the ugly side of the sport – a verbal confrontation between Khamzat Chimaev of United Arab Emirates, defending his middleweight title, and American Sean Strickland, who fights him tonight.
It was an altercation that got so heated both fighters had to be held back by security, one fighter landing a kick on the other.
Strickland regularly blows up at news conferences with some of the loudest, racist, homophobic, vitriolic rants you’ll hear anywhere. I am no delicate flower, so it doesn’t faze me at all, but the UFC has a challenge with the middleweight.
The UFC has gone more mainstream, just months into their new $7.7 billion, seven-year broadcasting deal with Paramount and CBS, with CEO Dana White appearing on CBS morning shows, on talk shows and podcasts. Fans in the U.S. now have access to all UFC content without a Pay-Per-View model.
Strickland doesn’t mesh with where they are going with the brand. Heavyweight Josh Hock, fighting in the UFC’s upcoming White House card, is the same, regularly spewing outlandish stuff, material that had Ilia Topuria tossing a water bottle at him at the news conference yesterday for the White House event.
Strickland reserved a large barrel for vitriol for Chimaev, as we saw yesterday, blasted all over social media. Was it performative art to boost fight viewership, or do these guys really hate each other that much?
Seeing Strickland’s act, going back years, I am betting on the latter, which makes tonight’s fight even more watchable.
Let’s focus on the main card bouts for tonight: Chimaev vs. No. 3-ranked Strickland, Joshua Van defending his flyweight title against No. 3-ranked Tatsuro Taira, No. 2-ranked Alexander Volkov vs. No. 4-ranked Waldo Cortes Acosta in a heavyweight bout, No. 6-ranked Sean Brady vs. No. 9-ranked Joaquin Buckley in a welterweight fight, and King Green vs. Jeremy Stephens in a lightweight bout.
In UFC betting this afternoon, on Betway, Chimaev is the heavy favourite, at -500, with Strickland at +350. Makes sense to me, since while I think Strickland goes off on opponents like Chimaev because he genuinely hates them, it also suggests he fears them.
Taira is -175 against the champion Van (+140), Volkov is a solid -150 against Acosta (+120), Brady is -163 against Buckley +130, and Green is -400 against Stephens +300.
BEST BETS
Chimaev vs. Strickland, Total Rounds Over 4.5 (+162)
I think Chimaev wins (he’s undefeated and motivated after the heated buildup), but that Moneyline is too steep. Strickland is usually hard to finish quickly, but he struggles under sustained grappling pressure.
That first round, with all the pre-fight hype, is going to be wild.
Chimaev likes to wrestle and control position early, but going Total Rounds protects me a little against the any unlikely Strickland upset, which would be by decision. Total Rounds Over 4.5 is a good value play.
Volkov Decision or Technical Decision +130
Volkov’s strengths – his jab, his kickboxing acumen and distance management – will allow him to bank points. Volkov often wins rounds by landing more strikes.
And don’t sleep on his kickboxing ability – front kicks, calf kicks, straight shots, he’ll bank points there too.
I like Volkov because of his reach, at 6-foot-7, which keeps slower heavyweights at a distance. Acosta is quicker for a big man, but not quicker than Volkov when talking footwork and longer-range movement.
Brady To Win -163
Bettors are leaning hard on Buckley in terms of tickets and handle, but I am leaning the moderate favourite here.
Brady has the grappling edge, so he’ll win by fighting at a close distance – if he can avoid the knockout against the dangerous southpaw striker Buckley.
Both men are coming off losses.
