Lightweight champion Ilia Topuria makes his return against interim lightweight champ Justin Gaethje on the South Lawn of the White House
The Ultimate Fighting Championship heads outdoors tomorrow, for UFC Freedom 250, happening in a specially constructed Octagon located on the South Lawn of the White House.
President Donald Trump, a big fan of UFC, brought up the idea of the outdoor event during a speech last July, thinking it would be a nice way of commemorating America’s 250th anniversary celebrations.
Trump approached UFC President and CEO Dana White about the idea and here we are. Only this isn’t any exhibition exercise.
Seven serious bouts are scheduled for UFC Freedom 250, which gets going tomorrow at 8 p.m. EST, including two title bouts.
UFC lightweight champion Ilia Topuria makes his long-awaited return to UFC after a layoff due to a personal matter, taking on interim UFC lightweight title holder Justin Gaethje, to unify the belt.
The other title fight is a heavyweight interim title bout between Alex Pereira and Ciryl Gane.
The other fights are Sean O’Malley up against Aiemann Zahabi in a bantamweight bout, Josh Hokit versus Derrick Lewis in a heavyweight bout, Mauricio Ruffy versus Michael Chandler in the lightweight division, Bo Nickal versus Kyle Daukaus in a middleweight division fight, and Diego Lopes versus Steve Garcia in a featherweight bout.
In UFC betting at Betway, Topuria is a heavy favorite at -550 against Gaethje (+400), while Pereira and Gane are both priced at -110 in a pick’em fight.
O’Malley is -400 against Zahabi, at +300, while Hokit is a big favorite (-450) over Derrick Lewis (+333). Ruffy is a heavy betting favorite, at -650, over Chandler, who’s at +450. Nickal is the betting favorite, at -334, in his fight with Daukaus (+250).
Lopes is -163 against Garcia, at +130.
In fact, it’s been a long time since I have seen this many heavy underdog fights in a UFC event.
Gaethje took the interim lightweight title with an impressive 5-round win over Paddy Pimblett in January. Topuria is looking to KO his fourth legend in a row – already beating Alexander Volkanovski, Max Holloway, and Charles Oliveira.
Topuria versus Gaethje, Over 1.5 Rounds (-120)
Topuria is undefeated, with elite power and boxing skill, and has stopped top opponents early in recent years.
He wins tomorrow’s fight (Topuria by KO, TKO or Disqualification is -250 at Betway). Gaethje is dangerous, but he absorbs damage, often engaging in the type of open slugfests that Topuria likes.
Gaethje is tough and will handle the early punishment. That’s why I like this one to go beyond 1.5 rounds.
O’Malley to win by decision (-110)
Maybe it’s the fact he’s Canadian, and comes out of Montreal’s famous Tristar Gym, but I see Zahabi and O’Malley going the distance.
Zahabi is currently ranked sixth in the UFC bantamweight division, and brings a 14-2 professional record into the fight, including a seven-fight winning streak, the best run of his UFC career.
O’Malley is ranked No. 3 in the division and is one of the most dangerous strikers out there. He also stands 5-foot-11, with a 72-inch reach, enormous dimensions for a bantamweight. Zahabi will have to watch out for the knockout, but I think he toughs it out against O’Malley to the end.
Plus, don’t forget the age difference. The weather forecast is for hot and humid conditions. O’Malley is 31. Zahabi is 38, and while he has had a great later-career surge under the excellent coaching of his brother, Firas Zahabi, age is a factor bettors always consider. That’s why O’Malley wins this.
Hokit by KO, TKO or Disqualification (-120)
I am more curious about what Hokit pulls off with over-the-top antics and WWE-style self-promotion in front of the President, members of his cabinet, 5,000 people in attendance on the White House lawn and those watching on television.
That aside, Lewis, 41, has been knocked out a lot (eight times in 29 fights). Yes, he also has the most knockouts in UFC history, with 16 (Betway has him at +450 to knock out Hokit).
But Hokit is fast, young, athletic, and is on a tear, at 9-0, with five KOs already. Lewis is older and slower now, and that heat will be a factor for him as well, as Hokit controls the pace with his wrestling skills, while landing clean shots. It was only last November that Hokit had that KO of Max Gimenis in 56 seconds of Round 1.
