Our NFL Week 8 picks against the spread highlight the best Sunday NFL bets, featuring expert analysis, key trends and top ATS selections
The Green Bay Packers took care of business at Lambeau Field last night, beating the Carolina Panthers 27-19.
I had Packers -3.5, the Under 47.5, plus Bryce Young Under 253.5 passing yards, so that was good, but I also had Josh Jacobs 60+ rushing yards, and he finished with 38.
The Packers are good, but they aren’t going anywhere serious if they don’t figure out how to get that running game going, beyond getting injured guys back on the offensive line.
Twelve games on the docket for Sunday, followed by the Chicago Bears and the Seattle Seahawks in a titanic Monday Night game.
Here are my NFL Week 8 picks against the spread.
NFL Week 8 Betting Landscape
Going into the weekend, and somewhat incredibly in the eyes of many, the Minnesota Vikings are the NFL’s last undefeated team; several major trades happened this past week, and a big quarterback question will affect your ATS picks.
It won’t get easier for the Vikings as they head into Ford Field in Detroit to take on the 4-2 Lions. In NFL betting at Betway, the Vikings are -180 underdogs. And Detroit is -3.5 on the spread.
Then there was the trade market this past week, heating up as we march toward the Nov. 10 deadline. The Seahawks bolstered their offensive line, giving quarterback Sam Darnold more protection, by trading for All-Pro offensive guard Quenton Nelson from the Indianapolis Colts.
The Colts also traded defensive tackle DeForest Buckner to the San Francisco 49ers, while the Tennessee Titans shocked everyone, trading All-Pro tackle Jeffery Simmons to the Chicago Bears. The rich get richer, I guess, and playoff favourites are starting to take shape.
The big quarterback storyline, which will impact betting lines, is whether Lamar Jackson can return from that ankle injury in the Baltimore Ravens (4-3) Sunday afternoon game in Buffalo against the Bills (5-1). As ESPN’s Adam Schefter reported, the Ravens listed Jackson as a full participant at yesterday’s practice, for the second straight day.
The Cincinnati Bengals (4-2) are gaining momentum behind QB Joe Burrow, a massive -550 moneyline favourite against Tennessee. When making yourNFL betting picks, keep a close eye on the Bengals.
NFL Week 8 Betting Trends
By now, we’ve all watched a lot of football. The central question from a betting perspective is whether markets are overvaluing established contenders while undervaluing teams outperforming expectations.
Are the Vikings outperforming expectations? And are the Bills overvalued, -180 moneyline favourites Sunday, factoring in their crappy defence – second-to-last in the NFL, giving up 386.8 yards per game, second-to-last in passing yards allowed (285.8), third-to-last in points allowed (28.5).
The Bills will be sitting in the snow again this February, watching two other teams play for the Super Bowl, if general manager Brandon Beane doesn’t address that defence in a major way by the deadline.
Road teams are 62-45 ATS, suggesting home-field advantage has been less valuable to bettors this season. Road underdogs are 38-25, relevant when you are evaluating teams receiving points.
NFL Week 8 Picks Against the Spread
Detroit Lions (-3.5) vs Minnesota Vikings
The undefeated Vikings are 4-2 ATS, while Detroit is 1-4-1, an interesting contrast heading into this game.
I like the Lions at home, but that’s a tougher bet than -3 because you are giving up that field-goal margin.
Detroit has offence to challenge Minnesota’s aggressive defence, and Jared Goff at home is a strong advantage. The Vikings defence is very good, though. Still, I like the Lions by a touchdown.
My pick: Lions -3.5 (-105)
Buffalo Bills (-3.5) vs Baltimore Ravens
I am going into this assuming Jackson starts, but even if he does, how much of an impact will he have after a month away?
The Bills are coming off a bye week. The Bills have won 11 consecutive games following their bye week. That’s a huge preparation advantage against a Ravens team that has lost two straight. Plus, the Bills will have a raucous home crowd at Highmark Stadium behind them.
Jackson or not, you can’t look beyond Bills quarterback Josh Allen and that Bills offence (provided RB James Cook can hold onto the ball), averaging 32.8 points per game, and Baltimore has struggled on defence.
And that Betway price is attractive. It’ll be high-scoring, but I can see the Bills by a touchdown.
My pick: Bills -3.5 (+100)
Chicago Bears (+3.5) vs Seattle Seahawks
The highlight game of Week 8, with the Bears coming off the big trade and quarterback Caleb Williams back in the MVP conversation (+1200 at Betway).
The Seahawks are coming off an impressive 20-3 win over the Kansas City Chiefs, but the Bears are emerging as one of the NFL’s dangerous teams.
Chicago is 5-2 ATS and has also gone 3-0-1 ATS in their past four games as underdogs. The Bears also lead the NFL in rushing yards per game (154.3).
Bears can still lose by a field goal and still cover.
My pick: Bears +3.5 (-125)
