Toronto opens the second half just 2.5 games out of a wild card, but tonight's odds suggest oddsmakers expect a close battle vs. Chicago
The Toronto Blue Jays return from the All-Star break tonight against the surprising, first-place Chicago White Sox, with futures bettors facing a key question: Is now the right time to buy low on Toronto before the trade deadline?
The Blue Jays (45-51) are last in the American League East, 12 games out of first. If they can still put it together with 66 games to go, landing one of the three AL wild-card spots is realistic, with the Jays 2.5 games presently out.
Those concerns about the team so far this year are legitimate. TSN illustrated the Blue Jays’ struggles with a graphic during last night’s broadcast: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has six home runs this season after hitting 23 a year ago; George Springer is batting .218 after hitting .309 last season; Alejandro Kirk is batting .202 after finishing at .282; and Kevin Gausman’s ERA has climbed to 4.33 from 3.59 in 2025.
The issues run much deeper than that, of course.
This morning, the Blue Jays are +3000 to win the World Series. That’s how far things have gone off the rails since their memorable World Series run last fall. Toronto is +1200 to win the American League at Betway and +2500 to capture the AL East.
What matters for futures bettors, though – the Jays don’t need to compete with the Tampa Bay Rays and the New York Yankees for the American League title now. Their focus is on Baltimore, Boston, Houston, Minnesota, Seattle, the mushy middle, for a wild-card spot, in what’s been a season of underachievement right across the American League landscape.
And it all might come down to one strong week for the Jays. That’s what bettors need to weigh. That’s why I also think the Blue Jays will be buyers at the Aug. 3 trade deadline, and that focus should be on hitting.
The rotation has legitimate upside. Dylan Cease is an All-Star and Cy Young Award candidate. You have Trey Yesavage (4-4, 3.72 ERA), and Max Scherzer is coming back.
The big question mark is what they have in Shane Bieber and Gausman. If Bieber can stay healthy, with just four starts this season after battling forearm issues, and Gausman can bounce back to established levels, and Cease keeps performing, that’s a top-end pitching staff.
Toronto also opens the post-All-Star Game period with a seven-game homestand, facing the White Sox and Rays. They’re 24-25 at home, so what an opportunity to get a jump, maybe roll out a strong 10- to 13-game stretch, as they travel to Boston and Washington, then back home to host St. Louis, before the trade deadline.
For bettors, putting money down now on Jays’ futures carries more value than one placed after they add talent. I don’t see them as trade deadline sellers, and credible reporters and commentators are saying the same thing.
Still, Fangraphs this morning projects the Jays to finish around 78-84, with a 20% chance of clinching a wild card spot.
Tonight, the White Sox visit Toronto to play the Blue Jays, 7:15 p.m. EST, at the Rogers Centre. In MLB betting at Betway, the Blue Jays are -135, the White Sox +115. On the Runline, the Jays are -1.5 (+140), with Chicago at +1.5 (-190), with the Total 8.5 runs (Over -110, Under -110).
So, sportsbooks expect a competitive game, with Spencer Miles (4-1, 2.85 ERA) on the mound for the Jays, against former Blue Jay Anthony Kay (6-4, 4.23 ERA).
That runline suggests bookmakers believe Chicago will keep the game close or win outright (that’s my lean, by the way), with Kay having a solid season.
